Shayne Houseman, a technician for Hauck Bros. Heating and Cooling, services a customer’s natural gas furnace.
As we go into the winter season, people heating homes with propane and natural gas are expected to have lower energy costs, but houses that use heating oil or electricity will likely have higher costs compared to last winter, according to a report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
The EIA published its Winter Fuels Outlook for 2026-27 on Oct. 6, where it shares its expectations for home energy consumption and prices for the upcoming winter among natural gas, electricity, propane and heating oil, which are the four most common home heating fuels.
In general, the EIA expects heating oil homes to pay 21% more than last year, electricity homes to pay 4% more than last year, propane homes to pay 3% less than last year and natural gas homes to pay 9% less than last year.
These assumptions are based on a forecast winter that is largely similar to last year in the Midwest and the South, but warmer in the Northeast and much colder in the West compared to last winter. The EIA added that the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration identified a strong El Niño pattern this winter that could lead to large temperature variations.
By far the biggest price change is heating oil, which is a petroleum distillate similar to diesel fuel. The EIA expected high heating oil prices for the same reasons that drivers were seeing rising costs at the gas station, including the ongoing conflict with Iran, global destruction of oil refineries and problems at domestic refineries. Homes that mainly use heating oil make up just 3% of houses nationwide, and is especially common in the Northeast, the agency said.
For homes primarily heated by electricity, the EIA predicted a rise in residential electricity prices and slightly higher consumption nationwide. Electric heat makes up about 43% of homes, the second most of the four most common fuels.
With propane, the EIA expects prices to be lower this winter, for about 3% lower prices on average across the U.S. Propane heating makes up about 5% of homes nationwide, the EIA said.
Natural gas is expected to see the largest cost decreases, and is the most widely-used heating fuel in the nation at 46% of homes, the EIA said. It said that lower natural gas prices and similar temperatures compared to last winter in the Midwest will push costs for consumers lower.
