Crude oil prices may remain volatile amid US-Iran tensions and Strait of Hormuz risks. |
New Delhi: prices are expected to remain volatile with an upward bias this week as uncertainty surrounding US-Iran negotiations and potential supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz continue to influence global energy markets, analysts said.
Investors will closely monitor diplomatic developments, US midterm election results and weekly American Petroleum Institute (API) inventory data for further direction.
Oil Prices Rise
Crude oil futures for November delivery on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) gained Rs 137, or 1.4 percent, last week to settle at Rs 9,937 per barrel.
According to Choice Broking, MCX crude futures recorded their fourth consecutive weekly gain amid escalating geopolitical tensions.
Internationally, Brent crude futures for December delivery climbed nearly 1 percent to USD 117.64 per barrel after touching USD 118.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures rose 1 percent to USD 104.12 per barrel.
Iran Talks In Focus
Iran confirmed receiving a letter from US Vice President JD Vance aimed at restarting peace negotiations.
US President Donald Trump said discussions were progressing but indicated there was no urgency to finalise an agreement.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi also confirmed talks with Qatari mediators over reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
However, continued tanker attacks and regional tensions have kept supply concerns elevated.
Shipping Risks Persist
Choice Broking highlighted threats to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and clashes involving Saudi Arabia and Houthi forces.
Adding to uncertainty, QatarEnergy reported that one of its LNG tankers was struck by unidentified objects while travelling through the Arabian Gulf.
Meanwhile, OPEC+ has reportedly agreed in principle to maintain December production targets unchanged.
Brent Eyes USD 120
Ajit Mishra, SVP of Research at Religare Broking, said geopolitical risks continue to outweigh traditional demand-side factors.
He expects crude prices to remain volatile with an upward bias.
Mishra identified $120 per barrel as Brent’s key resistance, while the $110–112 range represents an important support zone.
Diplomacy Holds Key
Analysts believe a diplomatic breakthrough between Washington and Tehran could trigger sharp profit-booking in crude oil.
However, persistent supply concerns, elevated inflation risks and uncertainty surrounding US monetary policy could keep prices supported in the near term.
