U.S. natgas futures edge up on lower output and a cooler outlook, while Chicago next-day gas prices drop about 10% to a 23-month low of $1.66/MMBtu.
(P&GJ) — U.S. natural gas futures edged up Wednesday on a drop in output in recent days and forecasts for seasonally cooler weather in mid-November that should boost heating demand.
Front-month gas futures for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 1.9 cents, or 0.7%, to $2.914 per million British thermal units (MMBtu).
In the spot market, however, mild weather and ample supply in the Midwest cut next-day prices in Chicago by about 10% to a 23-month low of $1.66 per MMBtu. That compares with an average of $3.33 so far in 2026, $3.23 in 2025 and $3.60 over the past five years.
Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states has fallen to 111.2 billion cubic feet per day (Bft³d) so far in November, down from 113.4 Bft³d in October and a monthly record high of 115 Bft³d in August.
Record output and mild spring weather earlier this year kept gas in storage above the 2021–2025 average since March, reaching a high of 7.7% above normal in April. Hotter-than-normal summer weather then forced energy firms to pull large volumes from storage to fuel power plants, cutting the surplus. With the return of mild weather and low demand, energy firms have added more gas than usual to storage in recent weeks. Gas in storage likely climbed to 1.4% above normal during the week ended Oct. 30, up from 1% the previous week, according to analyst estimates ahead of Thursday’s weekly federal inventory report.
Meteorologists predicted weather across the country would remain warmer than normal through Nov. 19. Still, with seasonally colder weather coming, LSEG said average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, would rise from 108 Bft³d this week to 116.4 Bft³d next week, higher than its outlook on Tuesday.
LNG exports
Average gas flows to the nine major U.S. LNG export plants have slid to 18.1 Bft³d so far in November, down from 18.4 Bft³d in October and a monthly record high of 18.8 Bft³d in April.
Gas was trading around $29 per MMBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility benchmark in Europe and $32 at the Japan-Korea Marker benchmark in Asia. U.S. gas prices have not reacted much to global supply disruptions because the U.S. produces all the gas it consumes and U.S. LNG companies are already liquefying as much fuel as they can, so the U.S. cannot send more LNG abroad until new liquefaction units under construction enter service.
