The ongoing restrictions on fuel trade, following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, have led to widespread energy shortages in several parts of the world, demonstrating the vulnerabilities in many countries’ energy security. As states look to develop alternative, regional supply chains or turn to alternative energy sources, such as renewables, it has become clear that the ongoing geopolitical challenges will reshape global energy trade.
The U.S.-Israeli-led war on Iran led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz – a key trade corridor connecting the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea, through which around 20 per cent of the world’s oil is transported when fully operational. Several months of closures have imposed significant constraints on energy trade, as many countries worldwide face severe fuel shortages.
Some regions are disproportionately more vulnerable than others to the ongoing geopolitical situation and energy trade constraints. In Africa, many countries already face a wide range of challenges, from the impact of climate change to poverty and conflict. In previous years, Iran has sought to expand political and security engagement in parts of Africa, deepening its energy ties across the continent.
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has made the dependency of several African countries on Iran and Asian countries, such as China, increasingly evident. The ongoing restrictions on energy trade could lead alternative powers, such as Russia and Turkey, to deepen ties with African governments. Both Moscow and Ankara have already expanded their influence in certain countries through defence and military agreements, as well as diplomatic engagement.
The severe fuel and fertiliser shortages being seen across Africa highlight the need to increase domestic energy capacity and strengthen regional supply chains. South Africa-based international relations analyst Aaliyah Vayez stressed, “The Hormuz crisis highlights how deeply connected Africa’s economic future is to global systems. It reinforces the need for countries to strengthen domestic capacity, diversify partnerships and reduce vulnerabilities across energy, trade and supply chains.”
Much of the crude that Africa produces is exported due to a lack of refining capacity, only to be imported as refined petroleum products. Therefore, the development of greater refining capacity in countries such as Nigeria and Angola could help reduce dependence on foreign powers, add value to the industry, and boost regional energy security.
In addition to adding value to existing oil operations, Africa also has significant potential to expand its renewable energy capacity to enhance energy security. Support for renewable energy has grown across the continent following a shift in demand trends during the COVID-19 pandemic, driven by greater interest from foreign investors in green energy and a greater focus on self-sufficiency.
Several European countries are increasingly looking to Africa to support a global green transition. The African continent is home to a vast array of natural resources that are critical for renewable energy and cleantech operations. Several African countries are also well-suited for the development of green energy operations, such as wind and solar farms. Therefore, deepening trade connections between Europe and Africa is seen as key to supporting the transition.
In 2024, gas was the main source of electricity in Africa, contributing to 43% of production across the continent. Oil burning accounts for roughly a further 8 per cent of electricity generation. The increase in oil and gas prices in recent months has, therefore, driven up electricity prices, adding to the cost of living. The challenges that accompany fossil fuel price volatility could be mitigated through the accelerated deployment of renewable energy across Africa.
Africa is home to 60 per cent of the best solar resources globally, according to the International Energy Agency. It also has significant potential to develop wind, hydropower, and geothermal resources. Further, the development of critical mineral mining operations could bring investment to the region and support a green transition. A 2025 study suggested that harnessing just 25 per cent of Africa’s renewable energy potential could significantly reduce energy poverty, contributing to a sustainable, low-carbon future.
Clean energy, including wind, solar, and hydropower, already accounts for at least 25 per cent of the continent’s energy production, and a significant pipeline of renewable energy projects is currently underway. Developing Africa’s renewable energy capacity, while also expanding its refining operations, could enhance its self-sufficiency and support the development of regional supply chains.
Meanwhile, deepening ties between Europe and Africa could help diversify trade routes and reduce dependence on the Middle East and Asia for certain energy products, as well as metals and minerals. This could be mutually beneficial as investment from the private sector, the EU, and other high-income countries could support the accelerated deployment of Africa’s renewable energy capacity and add value to its existing fossil fuel operations. Meanwhile, European countries could develop trade corridors to diversify their energy supply and access vast quantities of clean power.
By Felicity Bradstock for Oilprice.com
