OPEC+ has suspended production hikes, keeping crude oil output unchanged in October

On September 6 local time, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) released a statement. Seven core “OPEC+” oil-producing countries including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman held an online meeting to assess the current state and future trends of the global oil market. They finally decided to keep crude oil production levels in October unchanged from those in September, and reiterated that they would use policy tools to maintain the stability of the international crude oil market.

This marks the first time the group has chosen to pause production hikes since launching a new production increase cycle in April of this year.

Geopolitical disturbances: Blocked strait shipping weakens the alliance’s regulatory capacity

Media analysis pointed out that affected by the Middle East conflict, the passage of the Strait of Hormuz, an oil transportation channel, has been blocked, which directly restricts the actual export capacity of oil-producing countries and to a certain extent weakens “OPEC+”‘s regulatory influence on oil price trends and global market share.

According to the plan, “OPEC+” will complete the evaluation of the oil production capacity of each member state later this year to finalize the production benchmark for 2027.

Review of the production increase cycle: UAE withdraws, altering the alliance’s landscape

“OPEC+” is composed of OPEC member states plus non-OPEC oil-producing countries such as Russia.

Looking back at the policy path, in March 2025, the seven participating countries together with the United Arab Emirates finalized the phased implementation of crude oil production increases starting from April 1 of that year. The eight countries continued to increase production month by month until December. From January to March 2026, they collectively suspended production hikes due to seasonal factors; the production increase plan was restarted again in April.

On May 1, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially withdrew from OPEC and the “OPEC+” cooperation framework, and will no longer participate in production quota coordination work.