Look at the instruments, not the headlines. This is Shiometer.
Yesterday (October 15), the Nikkei Stock Average fell by 3,318 yen. It was the third-largest drop in history.
Overnight, US stocks have rebounded.
This morning, I will write about ‘today’s strategy’ based on the results of the US market.
In the paid section, I will introduce 5 stocks with ‘high dividends x themes x explosive potential’ that you can pick up while waiting for the decline to stop.
■ Catch Forecast (Today’s Conclusion)
・The Nikkei average is likely to start with a rebound of over 1,000 yen. However, this is a ‘rebound’ and not a confirmation of a bottoming out.
・Among the instruments I wrote about yesterday, the interest rate needle has calmed down. But the AI ‘credit needle’ is still fluctuating.
・Instead, a new needle has started to fluctuate. It is crude oil. Attacks on Saudi Arabia are continuing in the Middle East.
・Today, I will not chase the rebound at the opening. It is a day to pick up stocks with dividends that you can wait for, rather than the rebound in semiconductors.
■ Sea Conditions: US Market (October 15)
・NY Dow: $52,177 (+$556, +1.08%)
・S&P 500: 7,744 (+0.33%)
・Nasdaq: 26,713 (+0.08%). It fell significantly at one point, but returned to positive territory toward the end.
・SOX Index (Semiconductor Stock Index): -0.88%
・VIX (Volatility Index): 16.45 (-2.43%)
・US 10-Year Treasury Yield: 5.08% (-0.10 points from the previous day)
・WTI Crude Oil: $97.92 (+2.98%). This is the highest price since September 25.
・Gold: $4,180 (+1.77%)
・CME Nikkei Average Futures: 65,855 yen (+1,055 yen compared to the Osaka daytime closing price)
Let’s organize the trends in the US.
1. Prices were strong again
The September PPI (Producer Price Index) accelerated. Even so, interest rates fell.
This is because US Treasury bonds continue to be bought as a safe asset.
2. Anxiety over AI debt has not yet disappeared
CoreWeave, which triggered yesterday’s decline, saw its corporate bond yields rise to 15% at one point.
This means that ‘the side lending the money is demanding quite high interest rates.’
However, stock prices returned to positive territory toward the end of the day. Analysts are also saying that ‘this sharp drop is a good buying opportunity.’
3. What went up was ‘everything except AI’
What pushed the Dow up were consumer goods and banks with good earnings, and retail stocks that were upgraded.
The Nasdaq was almost flat, and semiconductors are still falling.
■ Checking the gauges (from the October 15th article)
Yesterday, I wrote that ‘from here on, we will distinguish using two gauges.’ The results are as follows.
1. Direction of the US 10-year Treasury yield
– Interest rates remained low, and stocks rebounded
– In terms of the three patterns from yesterday, this movement is close to ‘interest rates settle down and stocks rebound = a temporary shakeout’
– However, only the Dow rebounded. Semiconductors have not rebounded
2. News on funding for AI infrastructure companies
– CoreWeave’s corporate bond yield was 15% at one point. Even if stock prices rebound, the caution on the side of those lending money continues
– This needle is still swinging
In summary, ‘the market-wide shakeout has paused. But anxiety over AI still remains’.
I believe it is still too early for semiconductors to return to the spotlight.
■ A new needle that has started to move: Crude oil
There was another important movement this morning. Crude oil.
・The pro-Iranian militant group, the Houthis, continues its attacks on Saudi Arabia. According to the Saudi side, Riyadh airport was attacked 20 times in October alone.
・The summit between the EU and Gulf countries, which was scheduled for the 24th in Saudi Arabia, has been postponed.
・It was reported that Ukrainian President Zelenskyy ‘ordered the resumption of attacks on Russian oil facilities’.
・US crude oil inventories decreased by 8.56 million barrels in one week.
WTI crude oil is in the $97 range. The $100 mark is also coming into view.
When crude oil rises, the prices of goods in Japan rise. Electricity and gasoline prices also go up.
There is a possibility that we will return to the trend of ‘inflation does not stop -> interest rates are hard to lower’.
Yesterday, I wrote about the ‘credit needle, not the interest rate needle’. However, if crude oil exceeds $100, the interest rate needle might start to move again.
■ Today’s strategy
・The opening is expected to be around 65,400 to 65,800 yen (based on futures levels). A start of 1,000 to 1,400 yen higher is anticipated.
・This rebound is likely to invite ‘selling on the rally’ for semiconductors. This is because those who could not buy at yesterday’s lows will sell when the price recovers.
・Therefore, I will refrain from chasing and buying semiconductors at the opening.
・The stocks I will pick up today are those that meet the following three conditions:
1. Can wait with dividends (yield of 3% or more)
2. Have a theme unrelated to AI anxiety
3. Have a relatively small market capitalization and can move significantly when the theme catches fire
I have selected the 5 stocks in the paid section based on these three criteria.
■ Industry Analysis: ‘Companies that benefit’ and ‘companies that lose’ from high crude oil prices
Now that crude oil is approaching $100, who among Japanese stocks will benefit and who will lose? I will organize the structure.
Companies that benefit
・Companies that drill for oil and natural gas (exploration and production). The price of crude oil is directly reflected in sales and profits.
・Trading companies. Since they hold resource interests, their profits increase when resource prices rise.
Companies that are neither
・Oil wholesalers (companies that produce and sell gasoline, etc.). The value of their inventory increases, temporarily boosting profits. However, if the pass-through to selling prices is delayed, margins shrink.
Companies that lose
・Airlines, some shipping companies, and chemical manufacturers. Fuel and raw material costs rise.
・Electric power companies. Fuel costs are passed on to electricity rates through ‘fuel cost adjustments,’ but this is delayed by several months. During that time, profits are eroded.
・Transportation industry. Fuel costs become a direct burden.
There is one more point that is easily overlooked.
When crude oil rises, the argument that ‘it is cheaper to operate nuclear power plants’ becomes stronger again.
High crude oil prices are also a tailwind for nuclear-related themes.
■ Tackle Box (Holdings)
・PowerX (485A): 1,682 yen (October 15 closing price, -7.6%)
・Nittobo (3110): 2,916 yen (same, -9.4%)
・1 stock introduced in the October 15 paid article: 2,274 yen (same, -1.0%)
I believe the rebound for the two AI-leaning stocks will be limited even with today’s recovery.
I will not rush into buying or selling.
What is written ahead:
・5 stocks with ‘High Dividend x Theme x Explosive Potential’ (Stock name, dividend, PER, PBR, market capitalization)
・The ‘dates’ when each theme will ignite
・Digital Agency, Children and Families Agency, Disaster Management Agency. How did related stocks move when ‘new agencies were created’?
・Checking whether dividends are unlikely to be reduced (dividend payout ratio)
・The price range for buying, determined by ‘dividend yield’
・Which of the 5 stocks to buy first. Today’s order
・Bonus: 1 stock that benefits from both high crude oil prices and nuclear power
