Crude oil holds above $107/bbl as Strait of Hormuz disruptions tighten global supply

Markets remain focused on geopolitical tensions involving Iran, stalled US-Iran talks and reduced vessel movement through the Strait of Hormuz, which have kept risk premiums elevated in oil prices. OPEC has lowered its 2026 demand growth forecast to 1.17 million barrels per day from 1.4 million earlier, while the IEA now expects demand contraction this year. Saudi Arabia’s production has also fallen to multi-decade lows, adding to concerns over tightening global crude supplies.