Saturday, October 17, 2026
Hello. This is the M&A investor’s day trading journal.
Since today is Saturday, the Japanese stock market is closed.
So, this time, I would like to write in a bit more detail about JX Metals (5016), which I am also watching as an investment target. I own 3,000 shares myself and am sitting on unrealized losses…
I previously used an IFA, bought it as a long-term holding, and have been left holding the bag without it being cut for a loss.
Naturally, I cut ties with that IFA. But I still hold JX Metals.
The recent price movements of semiconductor-related stocks are truly intense.
When they rise, they rise surprisingly high. However, once the trend changes, stocks that were once so strong can drop by nearly 10% in the blink of an eye.
Watching such a market makes me think about things all over again.
“If you buy shares of a good company, will you definitely make a profit?”
The answer, of course, is NO.
I have experienced various investments so far, including company management, M&A, real estate investment, stocks, bonds, and commodity futures.
My real estate investments alone total approximately 6 billion yen.
However, even with various investment experiences, it is not easy to accurately judge the timing of buying and selling stocks.
Evaluating a company’s future potential and judging the timing to buy its stock are completely different skills.
And right now, I feel that JX Metals is one of the stocks that teaches that difference very clearly.
1. JX Metals has fallen about 46% from its year-to-date high. What is happening?
First, let’s check the stock price.
The closing price on October 16, 2026, was 3,114 yen.
On the other hand, the year-to-date high set on May 11 was 5,828 yen.
In other words, it has fallen by 2,714 yen in about five months, which is a decline of approximately 46.6%.
If you had purchased 1,000 shares near the high,
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Purchase amount: approximately 5.83 million yen
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Current valuation: approximately 3.11 million yen
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Unrealized loss: approximately 2.71 million yen
This is how the calculation works out.
Approximately 5.83 million yen has become 3.11 million yen in about five months.
This is the fear of stock market investing.
Moreover, looking at the recent stock price,
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October 9: 3,622 yen
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October 13: 3,527 yen
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October 14: 3,460 yen
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October 15: 3,123 yen
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October 16: 3,114 yen
It has fallen by about 14% in just about a week.
What we need to be careful about here is not just that the stock price is falling.
It is that despite the decline, the margin buying balance is extremely high.
I believe this is a crucial point when considering the future stock price.
2. Margin ratio over 37x. The danger of high margin buying even as the stock price falls
Looking at JX Metals’ weekly margin trading balance as of October 9,
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Margin buying balance: approximately 23.44 million shares
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Margin short interest: approximately 630,000 shares
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Margin ratio: approximately 37.27x
This is the current status.
Furthermore, according to the daily published data for October 15, margin long interest has reached approximately 24.91 million shares, with a margin ratio of 45.54x.
How should we interpret this?
A high margin ratio means that the number of shares bought on margin significantly exceeds the number of shares sold short.
Of course, a high margin ratio does not necessarily mean that the stock price will fall.
However, if this situation persists in a declining market, caution is required.
This is because stocks held through margin buying must eventually be repaid.
For example, when the stock price falls,
“It’s cheaper now, so I’ll buy it”
is what more people start to think.
However, the decline continues even after that.
Then, unrealized losses expand.
Eventually, some people will be forced to sell their holdings due to margin calls or stop-loss orders.
That selling pressure has the potential to push the stock price down even further.
In other words,
Stock price decline → Increase in margin buying → Further decline → Margin calls/stop-losses → Additional selling pressure
This is the vicious cycle.
I am extremely cautious about this situation.
This is because I myself have experienced significant losses in my investments in the past.
In natural gas futures trading, I once lost approximately 15 million yen in a single day.
A loss of 15 million yen in one day.
Even though I struggle with stop-loss orders of just a few hundred yen in my day trading now, I lost 15 million yen in a single day in the past.
I have to admit, the scale of the amounts is absurd.
However, I have learned something from that experience.
The hope that “it will bounce back someday” is not risk management.
I believe this applies equally to stock investment, real estate investment, and M&A.
3. It has fallen below the 200-day moving average. How far will the downward trend continue?
What I am focusing on in the JX Metals chart is the 200-day moving average.
The 200-day moving average is a line connecting the average of the closing prices over the past 200 trading days.
It is a representative indicator for judging medium- to long-term stock price trends.
As of October 16, JX Metals is trading below its major moving averages.
The deviation rates from the moving averages are generally at the following levels:
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5-day moving average: -7.57%
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25-day moving average: -13.40%
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75-day moving average: -17.39%
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200-day moving average: -15.29%
It is positioned more than 15% below the 200-day moving average as well.
This is a situation that should by no means be taken lightly.
When the stock price falls below the moving average, the price range that previously supported the stock may conversely be perceived as a level that caps the upside.
Investors who bought at a high price may think, once the stock price recovers,
“My unrealized loss has finally decreased. I’ll sell here.”
They might think this.
If such selling on rallies continues, the stock price will struggle to rise.
Also, the RSI is around 30, which is a level where oversold conditions are noted.
However, one must not misunderstand this point.
“Oversold” and “it won’t go down any further” are completely different things.
I have experienced this mistake many times myself while day trading.
The RSI is low.
It should rebound soon.
Thinking that, I try buying it.
Then, it falls even further.
I panic and cut my losses.
Looking back at the chart later, it was in the middle of a clear downward trend.
I end up thinking, ‘What am I doing?’
In the first place, entering based on RSI is a mistake.
It is easy when looking at the chart later, but difficult while actually trading.
This is both the fun and the fear of stock investing.
4. Even so, JX Metals is not just a semiconductor-related stock
Although I have written only about the decline so far, I still highly value the future potential of the company JX Metals.
The reason for this is that the company supplies advanced materials that are essential for semiconductor manufacturing.
I am particularly focused on sputtering targets for semiconductors.
These are critical materials used to form fine wiring and other structures inside semiconductors.
JX Metals supplies high-quality materials such as copper, tantalum, titanium, tungsten, and cobalt.
In advanced semiconductors, as manufacturing technology becomes more sophisticated, the quality of the materials used becomes extremely important.
This is where JX Metals’ technical strength lies.
As someone who manages a company and engages in M&A, there is something I prioritize when looking at a business.
That is,
“whether the company has technology or products that only they can provide.”
Businesses that anyone can easily enter tend to face intense competition.
On the other hand, businesses that require years of accumulated research, development, and manufacturing expertise have high barriers to entry.
I believe JX Metals’ semiconductor materials business possesses such strengths.
Of course, having technical capability does not necessarily guarantee increased profits.
Performance fluctuates depending on supply and demand in the semiconductor market and the capital investment trends of client companies.
However, I believe it is a company worth watching over the medium to long term.
5. New opportunities for JX Metals with the growth of AI data centers
Another reason I value JX Metals is their indium phosphide (InP) substrates.
Indium phosphide is a key material for optical semiconductors used in high-speed optical communications.
With the spread of AI, the amount of information processed in data centers is increasing.
Even if AI computing power increases, if data cannot be exchanged at high speeds, that potential cannot be fully utilized.
This is where optical communication technology becomes important.
In June 2026, JX Metals announced a plan to invest up to 120 billion yen in capital expenditure over four years to increase its production capacity for indium phosphide substrates.
Up to 120 billion yen.
That is quite a significant investment.
Since I also engage in M&A and new business investments, I am very interested in such large-scale capital expenditures.
There must be a certain outlook for future demand growth behind a company’s decision to make such an investment.
However, while capital investment can lead to significant growth if successful, it can also become a burden if demand falls below expectations.
Therefore, going forward, I would like to focus not only on sales, but also on points such as:
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how much the invested equipment will be utilized,
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whether profit margins will improve,
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and whether it can generate profits commensurate with the investment amount.
Being in a growth market and being able to capture that growth as profit are two different things.
I believe discerning this is important in investing.
6. Will JX Metals’ stock price fall below 3,000 yen?
From here, I will share my own thoughts on the future stock price.
The current closing price is 3,114 yen.
The price ranges I am focusing on are the following three.
1. Around 3,100 yen
First is the recent low of around 3,100 yen.
Will the selling run its course here?
Or will it hit a new low again?
This will be an important point in the short term.
2. 3,000 yen
Next, I am watching 3,000 yen, which is a psychological milestone.
If the stock price falls below 3,000 yen, there is a possibility that more bearish investors will emerge.
However, this does not mean that the 3,000 yen figure itself is a definitive support level.
3. 2,800 yen
If it clearly falls below 3,000 yen, I am also considering around 2,800 yen as the next downside scenario.
That is about 10% below the current stock price.
Of course, this does not mean it will definitely fall that far.
It is simply one of the scenarios I am considering for risk management purposes.
On the other hand, since it has already fallen significantly in a short period, there is also a possibility of an autonomous rebound.
The important thing is not to buy simply because the price has become cheap.
Is it rebounding with volume?
Is the liquidation of margin buying balances progressing?
Are there signs of the price starting to make higher lows?
I want to check these points before making a decision.
7. Is “I won’t sell because it’s a long-term investment” really correct?
Looking at the recent declines in JX Metals and Kioxia, I am reconsidering the difference between margin trading and long-term investing.
With cash trading, there is a strategy of holding for a long period while checking performance and financial conditions.
However, margin trading is different.
Costs such as interest rates are incurred.
If the stock price falls, a margin call may occur.
Standard margin trading also has a repayment deadline.
In other words, there is a possibility that a situation will arise where you are forced to sell even if you do not want to.
I do not think that long-term investing based on belief in a company’s future potential is bad in itself.
However,
buying on margin aiming for short-term price gains, only to change your reasoning to “this is a long-term investment” the moment unrealized losses expand,
I think this is a dangerous way of thinking.
Actually, this has happened to me in the past as well.
Investing too large an amount.
Investing without sufficient understanding.
Believing too much in one’s own predictions.
Delaying the decision to cut losses.
Thinking “I have the funds, so it’s fine.”
I have experienced these failures many times.
That is precisely why, in my current day trading, I make sure not to bet large amounts from the start.
I have accumulated approximately 6 billion yen in real estate investments.
I have also experienced M&A transactions worth hundreds of millions of yen.
Yet, in day trading, I am seriously chasing profits of just a few hundred or a few thousand yen.
It is quite a strange sight, even to me.
However, it is important to me.
Just because you have the capital does not mean you need to trade with large lots from the start.
First, acquire the skills using small lots.
Once you can win, gradually increase your trading volume.
I believe I am at that stage right now.
Even a profit of a few hundred yen is better than taking a loss.
This is my honest opinion.
8. Is JX Metals a good company? Or is it a stock to buy now?
My thinking regarding JX Metals is very simple.
I am cautious about the short-term stock price, but optimistic about long-term business growth.
I think about these two things separately.
JX Metals possesses advanced material technology.
There is also room for growth in optical communication materials for AI data centers.
However, that alone does not mean the current stock price is cheap.
This is because stock prices move in anticipation of a company’s future potential.
For example, suppose a company’s profits have grown significantly.
Normally, the stock price would seem likely to rise.
However, if the market expects even more growth, the stock price can fall even on good earnings.
Conversely, even if performance is poor, the stock price can rise if it is not as bad as market expectations.
In the stock market, it is important to compare not just the company’s performance itself, but also how it measures up against prior expectations.
When I conduct M&A, no matter how attractive a company is, I verify whether the acquisition price is appropriate.
Just because it is a good company does not mean you should buy it at any price.
Stock investment is the same.
Finding a good company and buying that company at a fair price.
I believe that only when these two things come together does it lead to a good investment.
Regarding JX Metals as well, I intend to make investment decisions cautiously while confirming the business’s growth potential and profitability in future earnings reports.
9. Why a man aiming for 10 billion yen obsesses over profits of a few hundred yen
My ultimate goal in asset building is 10 billion yen.
To achieve that, it is necessary to find major investment opportunities.
However, I believe that what is even more important is not being forced out of the market due to a major failure.
If you continue to invest, there will inevitably be times when your predictions are wrong.
No matter how much you study, it is impossible to read every market movement accurately.
That is precisely why minimizing losses when predictions go wrong is so important.
Isn’t this what determines one’s true ability as an investor?
JX Metals may fall even further in the future.
On the other hand, there is also a possibility that it will rebound faster than expected.
Even so, it is possible to understand a company’s business, check supply and demand, and look for the right timing.
I intend to continue following JX Metals’ stock price and corporate growth.
And as for my own day trading, I plan to keep honing my skills with small lots.
I have become accustomed to the judgment of buying a company. But I am still learning about the timing of buying stocks.
The road to 10 billion yen is still a long one.
*This article is a personal investment analysis based on market data and public information as of October 16, 2026. The stock price levels mentioned are predictions and scenarios and do not guarantee future prices. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any specific stock, and investment decisions should be made at your own risk.
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