SunSirs: Analysis of Expected U.S. Crude Oil and Petroleum Product Inventory Levels

On Tuesday, November 3, an expanded survey indicated that U.S. crude oil and gasoline inventories are expected to have risen last week, while distillate inventories likely declined. Based on the average estimates from eight surveyed institutions, U.S. crude oil inventories for the week ending October 23 are projected to have increased by approximately 880,000 barrels. Gasoline inventories are estimated to have seen a modest rise of about 150,000 barrels, whereas distillate inventories—which include diesel and heating oil—are expected to have fallen by 100,000 barrels.

The projected 880,000-barrel increase in U.S. crude oil inventories for the week ending October 23 suggests a looser supply environment, exerting downward pressure on both spot and futures prices for crude oil.

The anticipated modest 150,000-barrel increase in U.S. gasoline inventories, coupled with expectations of relatively weak demand, is expected to have a slightly bearish impact on gasoline prices.

The projected 100,000-barrel decline in distillate inventories—comprising diesel and heating oil—represents a slight drawdown, providing a modest bullish support for distillate prices.

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