When you hear “high crude oil prices and a weak yen,” doesn’t it sound like bad news for every company?
In reality, companies that sell crude oil, companies that use fuel, and companies that sell products overseas are affected differently. This time, without using difficult calculations, we will compare three types of companies using manga.
Why can the same news be both a tailwind and a headwind? We will connect the dots in about 3 minutes, from company profits to stock prices and the investment trusts you are accumulating.
*This video does not recommend investing. Please invest at your own risk.
Key Points
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Companies that produce and sell crude oil: High crude oil prices tend to be a tailwind for selling prices, and a weak yen tends to be a tailwind for the yen-converted value of dollar-denominated profits.
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Companies that earn revenue in yen domestically and use a lot of fuel: High crude oil prices and a weak yen tend to be a headwind due to the fuel burden. Results may vary depending on price pass-throughs or contracts.
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Companies that manufacture in Japan and sell overseas: Compare the tailwind of increased revenue due to a weak yen against the headwind of raw material and transportation costs.
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A tailwind for profits does not guarantee a rise in stock prices. It is also important whether the market has already anticipated it.
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For stock investment trusts, check the ratio of included stocks and industries. Foreign assets are also affected by exchange rates and the presence or absence of hedging.
This comparison is a general mechanism assuming other conditions remain the same. It is not a prediction of actual company performance or stock prices. We distinguish between companies that produce crude oil and companies that buy and refine crude oil.
Company Type Impact of High Crude Oil Prices Impact of Weak Yen
Companies that sell crude oil Selling prices rise, The yen-converted value of profits
tending to be a tailwind earned in dollars increases
Companies that use fuel Fuel costs increase, The yen-denominated burden of fuel
tending to be a headwind purchased from overseas increases
Companies that sell products overseas Burden of raw material/ The yen-converted value of overseas
transportation costs increases revenue increases
Source
Information verification date: October 18, 2026. This is not a news flash covering the latest market levels, but an explanation of the mechanisms for reading economic news.
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INPEX “Business Risks”: The impact of crude oil/natural gas prices, exchange rates, etc., on business performance. Reference for the explanation of crude oil production companies.
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ANA Holdings “FY2025 Third Quarter Financial Results Briefing”: Published February 3, 2025. Reference for the mechanisms of fuel costs, exchange rates, and fuel/currency hedging. It is not used as a document indicating current figures or contract status. The transportation company in the manga is not a specific real-world company.
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Japan Exchange Group “How Stock Prices are Determined”: The relationship between corporate performance, exchange rates, etc., and stock prices. Reference for the explanation of overseas revenue, yen conversion, and profit expectations.
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The Investment Trusts Association, Japan “Basic Knowledge of Investment Trusts”: Reference for the explanation of the mechanisms, investment targets, and risks of investment trusts.
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