Nigeria’s improved crude oil production is helping cushion the fiscal impact of falling Brent prices, easing revenue pressures despite weaker global oil markets and export earnings, DARE OLAWIN writes
As Brent crude prices hover around $76 per barrel on easing supply concerns over oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, Nigeria’s higher crude oil production is helping cushion the impact of weaker prices on the economy.
The increase in production has been linked to improved pipeline security in the Niger Delta, where Tantita Security Services Nigeria Limited has played a major role in protecting oil infrastructure in collaboration with other security agencies. The improved security environment has helped raise production, providing some relief against revenue pressures caused by lower oil prices.
Protecting strategic national assets remains critical to economic stability, investor confidence and sustainable growth. For decades, Nigeria’s oil pipelines were repeatedly attacked by vandals, crude oil thieves and operators of illegal refineries, resulting in revenue losses, environmental degradation, social instability and reduced economic benefits from the country’s oil resources.
The situation began to improve after President Bola Tinubu appointed Tantita Security Services Nigeria Limited, led by High Chief Government Ekpemupolo, popularly known as Tompolo, to secure critical oil assets in the Niger Delta.
Working alongside other security agencies, Tantita’s surveillance operations have focused on reducing pipeline vandalism, crude oil theft, and illegal bunkering while improving the security of oil infrastructure. The improved operating environment has contributed to higher crude production and greater stability in the oil sector.
Impact on oil production
Data released by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission showed that Nigeria exceeded its OPEC production quota in May, recording its highest crude oil output in 15 months and retaining its position as Africa’s largest oil producer.
The commission said the country produced an average of 1.53 million barrels of crude oil per day during the month. With condensate production of 170,446 barrels per day, Nigeria’s total hydrocarbon output averaged about 1.7 million barrels per day.
“Nigeria’s oil production witnessed an upswing in May 2026, averaging 1,530,354 barrels of crude oil and 170,446 barrels of condensates per day, bringing the total combined production to 1,700,800 barrels per day and consolidating Nigeria’s position as Africa’s largest oil producer,” the NUPRC said.
The figure represents 102 per cent of Nigeria’s OPEC quota of 1.5 million barrels per day. It is also the country’s strongest crude oil production performance in 15 months, excluding condensates.
Economist and policy analyst, Dr Muda Yusuf, said while lower crude prices could eventually reduce the prices of petrol, diesel, aviation fuel and gas, they would also reduce government revenue.
Yusuf added that although improved security had helped increase production compared with previous years, Nigeria still needed substantial investment to sustain higher output.
Other analysts noted that while reforms under the Petroleum Industry Act had improved the investment climate, sustained production growth would require additional domestic and foreign investment.
An oil magnate based in Abuja, Michael Otu, said, “To sell more crude oil requires additional production. The capacity to produce more depends on several factors, including the fiscal regime, which is much better now than it used to be. The second is investment in the sector.”
Otu added that increasing crude oil production requires significant capital expenditure and long-term planning. “The PIA policy was to incentivise production. A lot of the amendments made through executive orders were also designed to boost investment and drive output,” he stated.
The NUPRC attributed much of the production improvement to reduced pipeline vandalism and better asset protection. The regulator noted that stronger security around oil infrastructure had supported production recovery.
Pipeline security
In a published report, the President-General of the Niger Delta Progressive Alliance, Nse Udoh, said effective pipeline surveillance had enabled national institutions to shift from crisis management to long-term planning.
“It is important to clarify the role of pipeline surveillance within the wider energy landscape. Energy security encompasses the full value chain, from exploration and production to refining, distribution, pricing policy, and subsidy frameworks. Pipeline surveillance does not manage these domains,” he said.
He added, “Its mandate is precise: safeguarding critical infrastructure that transports petroleum resources. Yet this single function has proven foundational. Without secure transportation channels, production targets falter, refining plans collapse, exports decline, and fiscal projections become unreliable.”
According to him, “Asset protection, in this context, is not a supporting activity. It is a precondition for economic order. In effect, the pipeline is the hinge on which the entire petroleum value chain turns. When that hinge is weak, every other link in the chain carries strain. When it is secure, the entire system gains coherence.”
Udoh said sustained monitoring and rapid response had significantly reduced pipeline breaches and illegal tapping, helping to restore Nigeria’s credibility in international oil markets.
“Economic stability follows predictability. When crude flows are secure, refineries can plan feedstock intake with assurance. Export commitments can be met without fear of sudden shortfalls. Gas-to-power projects can operate without recurrent shutdown risks.
“Investors can assess Nigeria’s petroleum sector with clearer risk profiles. Surveillance therefore does more than stop theft. It reintroduces reliability into national energy planning. And reliability is the bedrock upon which sustainable economic growth is built.
“With predictable flows, national budgeting becomes more credible, infrastructure planning becomes more precise, and long-term contracts become easier to negotiate. Predictability is the silent currency of modern economies, and pipeline surveillance has begun restoring it,” he stated.
He added that improved asset protection had strengthened public finances by increasing export earnings and foreign exchange inflows while improving the credibility of government budgeting and development planning.
Udoh also noted that sustained surveillance operations had helped reduce environmental damage in the Niger Delta by curbing illegal refining and repeated pipeline sabotage.
Chairman of the House Committee on Host Communities, Dekor Dumnamene Robinson, said the contributions of Tantita and its leadership to national security deserved recognition.
Lawmakers under the Joint Committee of the House of Representatives on Host Communities and Public Petitions, alongside other stakeholders, also commended the company for its role in protecting Nigeria’s oil infrastructure.
“Tantita Security Services Nigeria Limited, in partnership with NNPCL, has rendered demonstrably effective service in the protection of crude oil pipelines and the recovery of national crude oil production,” they stated.
The committee passed a unanimous vote of confidence in the company and urged the Federal Government and NNPCL to approve a long-term renewal of its surveillance contract to consolidate gains made against crude oil theft and illegal bunkering.
“Tompolo and his team have served this country at great personal risk. They have kept the economic lifeline of the nation running and restored peace to communities that had not experienced peace in decades,” Robinson said.
The National Chairman of Host Communities of Nigeria Producing Oil and Gas, His Highness Benjamin Style Tamaranebi JP, also commended President Bola Ahmed Tinubu for entrusting Tantita with the responsibility of protecting oil assets in the Niger Delta.
Global oil market
Oil prices declined sharply as markets became increasingly confident that disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz would ease.
Brent crude fell about 10 per cent during the week, while Middle Eastern crude benchmarks, including Dubai and Murban, slipped into contango, reflecting expectations of improved supply.
Although ship movements through the Strait of Hormuz remained below normal levels, rising crude transits suggested that oil flows were gradually recovering.
More than 16 million barrels of crude passed through the waterway during the week, raising hopes of a gradual reopening of the strategic shipping route.
However, concerns persist over possible disruptions after Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard reportedly fired drones at the Taiwan-owned cargo vessel Ever Lovely as it attempted to transit the Strait of Hormuz through what Iran described as “unauthorised routes”, damaging the ship’s bridge about seven miles off the Omani coast.
Reports also indicated that optimism over a possible agreement between the United States and Iran contributed to the fall in oil prices, as traders anticipated the gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the potential return of more Iranian crude to the global market under a possible sanctions waiver.
