US 10-year Treasury yield surges to 5.1%—rate hike concerns fueled by high oil prices and strong economic indicators
Market structure where high oil prices and rising interest rates erode P/E ratios—the tug-of-war between AI-related stock strength and P/E compression
Summary of US stock market trends and key points
1. Movement of major indices
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S&P 500 / Nasdaq: Fell early on due to high oil prices and rising interest rates, but saw buying late in the session to finish nearly flat (S&P 500: -0.02%, Nasdaq: +0.01%).
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VIX (Volatility Index): Rose about 3% to the “15” level. Market caution increased despite stock prices remaining flat.
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USD/JPY: Around 158 yen (dollar strengthening and yen weakening).
2. Interest rates and crude oil (the two major factors that moved the market)
3. Macroeconomic indicators and Fed rate hike expectations
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Strong economic indicators (the “good news is bad news” structure suggesting reignited inflation and continued rate hikes)
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Initial jobless claims: 190,000 (-1,000 from the previous week, below the expected 200,000 and near a 57-year low).
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August new home sales: +6.4% month-on-month (680,000 units annualized, an 8-month high).
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Rate hike expectations: The probability of an additional rate hike of 25bp or more at the October FOMC meeting has risen to nearly 70%.
4. Internal stock market environment (tug-of-war between stock prices and valuations)
Key points to watch and market turning points
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Release of economic indicators
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US durable goods orders: A strong result poses a risk of further pushing up interest rates and rate-hike expectations.
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University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (final): Watch closely to see if inflation expectations (preliminary reading of 4.6%) rise further.
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Middle East situation and crude oil prices
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The future of US-Iran negotiations: If negotiations progress, crude oil will plummet, leading to a retreat in interest rate and inflation concerns. If they break down and attacks continue, high crude oil and high interest rates will weigh on stock prices.
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Key levels for long-term interest rates
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