October Rollover, European Demand, and Key Price Levels
The real question this year is going to be whether or not the Europeans actually have natural gas coming out of Qatar, and of course, Qatar has recently been buying liquefied natural gas from the United States to help fulfill some contractual obligations for places like Germany and Belgium, etc.
So, ultimately, this is a market that I think does have a floor underneath it somewhere. Currently, it looks like around the $2.65 level, and I am becoming increasingly bullish as time goes on as we go deeper into the year, but I also recognize that it is still a little early for that. So, I’ve basically shifted from very bearish to somewhat neutral.
I’m going to watch the $3 level as a potential ceiling, somewhere around $2.65 for a potential floor, although as we just rolled over into a different contract, history would suggest that maybe the floor is even higher than the $2.65 level as we are now trading a different month.
