[9/17 Evening Edition | STANDARD_330] Yen at 155, Crude Oil at $103, Eve of BOJ

🌍 WORLD MARKET BRIEF
September 17, 2026 Evening Edition

Good evening, everyone. This morning, the focus was on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike, but by the time the Tokyo market closed this evening, the spotlight had clearly shifted to the Bank of Japan.

However, today’s price movement is not a simple case of ‘yen appreciation before a BOJ rate hike.’ The dollar-yen pair returned to the mid-155 range, and both the Nikkei 225 and TOPIX rose. While crude oil futures fell to the $103 level, ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is at about one-sixth of normal levels. Prices indicate relief, but logistics still indicate a crisis. I will break this down and organize it for you.

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⚡ TODAY IN 5 SECONDS

💴 Dollar-Yen: Around 155.50 yen, trending toward yen depreciation since morning
🟦 BOJ: 1.25% rate hike expected on the 18th, focus is on the next move
🇯🇵 Nikkei 225: 64,136 yen, up 0.33%
🇯🇵 TOPIX: 4,094, up 0.8%
🟧 Brent Crude: $103.95, continuing to fall from $105.83 in the morning
🟪 Strait of Hormuz: 3 merchant ships passing, recent average is 17
🟧 LNG Spot: $26 per million BTU, suppressing Asian demand
🩵 Japan-US: Plan for a US semiconductor plant worth up to 3 trillion yen
🩵 Huawei: To launch two new AI semiconductors in 2027
🇨🇳 China: Further strengthening advanced manufacturing, expanding external friction

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🌡️ MARKET TEMPERATURE

RISK ON　🟢🟢🟢⚪⚪⚪⚪🔴🔴🔴　RISK OFF

Verdict: 🟡 Neutral leaning toward caution

Tension in the stock market has eased slightly since the morning edition. Following the drop in crude oil and a pause in bond selling, Tokyo stocks rose, and European stocks are also firm in early trading.

However, this is not a situation to be overly complacent. The Fed has hinted at additional rate hikes, and the dollar index is at a seven-week high. The yen fell to the 155 range ahead of the BOJ’s rate hike. Furthermore, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains sharply reduced.

On the surface, there is ‘relief due to lower oil prices,’ but beneath the surface, financial tightening and logistical constraints continue.

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🚨 TOP 10 IMPORTANT NEWS

🥇 💴 Yen around 155.50, yen depreciation continues even before BOJ
🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥｜Government keeps a check on excessive volatility

🥈 🟦 First day of BOJ meeting, 1.25% rate hike expected
🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥｜What matters is the distance to 1.50%

🥉 🟧 Brent continues to fall to $103.95
🔥🔥🔥🔥｜Down about $1.9 from the morning edition, supply concerns remain unresolved

4️⃣ 🟪 Merchant ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz is 3 ships
🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥｜Sharp drop from the recent 10-day average of 17 ships

5️⃣ 🇯🇵 Nikkei 225 up 0.33%, TOPIX up 0.8%
🔥🔥🔥🔥｜Yen depreciation and lower oil prices support Japanese stocks

6️⃣ 🟧 LNG at $26, Asian imports at an 8-year low
🔥🔥🔥🔥｜Cost pressure on electricity, chemicals, and fertilizers

7️⃣ 🩵 Japan-US plan for a semiconductor plant worth up to 3 trillion yen
🔥🔥🔥🔥｜GlobalFoundries operation plan, materialization of US investment framework

8️⃣ 🩵 Huawei to launch new AI semiconductors in 2027
🔥🔥🔥｜NVIDIA rival focuses on large-scale connectivity over individual performance

9️⃣ 🟫 Takaichi Cabinet reshuffle, finance and economic ministers retained
🔥🔥🔥 | Prioritizing continuity in fiscal, currency, and US negotiations

🔟 🇨🇳 Xi Jinping orders expansion of advanced manufacturing
🔥🔥🔥 | Strengthening supply capacity over domestic demand, wary of trade friction

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🧭 TODAY’S MARKET MAP

There are two paths driving the evening market.

🟦 FRB additional rate hike expectations
↓
💵 Dollar index 100.3, US 2-year bond 4.7% range
↓
💴 Dollar-Yen in the mid-155 range
↓
🟩 Japanese export stocks
🟥 Import companies and households
↓
🟦 BOJ rate hike pressure

The other is energy.

🟧 Saudi alternative transport via Oman
↓
🟧 Brent falls to $103 range
↓
🟩 Short-term relief for aviation, travel, and chemicals

On the other hand,

🟪 3 ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz
↓
🟥 Constraints on physical supply of crude oil and LNG
↓
🟧 LNG spot $26
↓
🟥 Rising costs for electricity, fertilizer, and manufacturing

In other words, while futures prices are pricing in supply improvements, actual ship flows have not yet normalized. I believe that tonight, we should look at transit volumes and LNG spot prices in addition to crude oil prices.

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☕ Free 3-minute summary

💴 ① Even before the BOJ, the yen hits the 155 range

The yen fell to around 155.50 yen to the dollar during Asian hours. It has lost much of the yen appreciation seen from the 152.89 yen level reached in early September.

The reason is that while the Fed indicated additional rate hikes within the year after its 0.25% hike, the market has begun to look cautiously at the BOJ’s “next move after 1.25%.” Even if the BOJ raises rates on the 18th, if the subsequent pace is slow, a large Japan-US interest rate gap will remain.

The government has reiterated its stance on responding to excessive currency fluctuations. However, the 155 range does not immediately mean intervention. The focus is on whether Governor Ueda’s press conference can stop the yen’s depreciation.

🟧 ② Even at $103 for crude oil, the crisis is not over

Brent crude continued to fall to $103.95, and WTI to $100.66. This is about $1.9 lower than the $105.83 for Brent in the morning edition.

Saudi Arabia proposed a plan to increase supply to Asia via Oman, easing fears of supply shortages. This is a clear relief factor for aviation, logistics, chemicals, and retail.

However, only 3 commercial ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz. This is significantly lower than the 12 ships the previous day and the recent 10-day average of 17 ships. It is important not to equate the price pullback with the normalization of logistics.

🇯🇵 ③ Japanese stocks rise on “weaker yen + cheaper crude oil”

The Nikkei 225 closed 0.33% higher at 64,136 yen, and the TOPIX closed 0.8% higher at 4,094.

The weak yen supports profit expectations for exporters, while lower crude oil prices ease the burden on Japan as an energy importer. Mitsubishi Heavy Industries and Nintendo were among those that rose.

However, if the Bank of Japan is more hawkish than expected tomorrow, both the yen and interest rates will rise simultaneously, creating headwinds for export stocks, REITs, and high-PER stocks. Today’s gains are not the final answer before the policy event.

🟧 ④ High LNG prices are more serious than crude oil

Asian LNG spot prices are at $26 per million BTU. Due to high prices, September imports in Asia are expected to be 20.09 million tons, the lowest level for September since 2018.

As China and South Asia reduced purchases, it became easier for Europe to build up inventories. However, this restraint is not a disappearance of demand but a suppression by price. If demand returns toward winter, cost pressures on electricity, chemicals, and fertilizers will intensify again.

🩵 ⑤ Semiconductor cooperation between Japan and the US and China’s self-reliance are progressing simultaneously

It was reported that Japan and the US are discussing the construction of a semiconductor factory on a scale of 2 to 3 trillion yen as part of a $550 billion investment framework in the US. The plan is for it to be operated by GlobalFoundries.

On the same day, Huawei announced two types of AI semiconductors scheduled for introduction in 2027 and a proprietary technology to connect a large number of chips.

The US is building a supply chain that includes allies, while China is advancing domestic production and large-scale connectivity under sanctions. Semiconductor investment has entered a stage where it is evaluated not only as a demand cycle but also as a security budget.

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📌 FREE SUMMARY

🟩 Tailwinds
Export stocks / Aviation & Travel / Semiconductor manufacturing equipment / Defense & Shipbuilding / High cash flow stocks

🟥 Headwinds
Import retail / Electricity & Gas / LNG-intensive industries / REITs / Long-term bonds / Highly indebted companies

🟨 Caution
Yen / Japanese Government Bonds / Oil stocks / Tankers / Banks / China-related manufacturing

Quote of the day:

“Even if crude oil falls, ships have not returned. The eve of the BOJ is a phase to check the 155 yen exchange rate and the traffic volume in the Strait of Hormuz simultaneously.”

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What you will learn in this paid section

① Conditions under which the yen will not continue to strengthen even if the BOJ raises rates to 1.25%
② How to consistently interpret lower crude oil prices and reduced traffic in the Strait of Hormuz
③ The ripple effects of US-Japan-China semiconductor policies on Japanese companies

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🔒 Paid section starts here

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