Oil crisis intensifies after prices hit wartime high – what it means for the UK | News World

Oil prices have soared to their highest level since 2022 as President Donald Trump appears to be preparing for an escalation of the Iran war.

The cost of benchmark Brent crude soared past £94 a barrel, up nearly 7%, reaching a high not seen since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

Hopes of a resolution to the war and the reopening of the crucial Strait of Hormuz shipping route have been dashed as peace talks between the US and Iran break down.

Trump has rejected Iran’s proposals to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and is preparing to launch a series of strikes on Iran, which would bring an end to a fragile ceasefire.

The surge in oil prices will lead to further fears over price rises at petrol pumps, with worries that the global energy shock will lead to a sharp increase in UK inflation.

Dr Andreas Krieg, Associate Professor in the Department of Defence Studies at King’s College London, told Metro the move in the oil markets is serious – and not just because of the price increase.

Could this lead to a recession in the UK?

The latest forecasts suggest that the ceasefire extension – which doesn’t have a clear deadline – along with blockade pressure and arguments over the Strait of Hormuz means the issue will likely remain unresolved for months.

‘This is a game of chicken between Trump and the IRGC, and not just for days. Every additional week of disrupted or politicised energy flows adds more cost to the system later, even if the physical disruption itself is uneven,’ Dr Krieg said.

The UK has reason to be concerned. Though panic-buying won’t set in immediately, higher crude, freight, insurance and trading risks are reflected in real time in fuel, food, household bills and general inflation.

‘The real costs for British consumers are more likely to arrive a few months down the line rather than all at once this week,’ he explained.

‘The most likely near-term outcome is not clean de-escalation, but a managed coercive pause in which diplomacy and pressure continue side by side. That means markets stay nervous, governments stay exposed, and the risk of miscalculation stays high.’

Weeks of intensifying attacks in the Middle East, disruption to energy production, and shipping delays in the Strait of Hormuz are all likely to have significant impacts on the global economy.

In early March, when oil surged in price, motorists were urged to stop ‘non-essential journeys’ to save money.

President of the AA, Edmund King, is urging Brits to make fewer journeys to save money, and suggested motorists should change their driving style to be more fuel efficient.

King said: ‘The longer this conflict goes on, the more effect it will have on the cost of oil. Any time Brent Crude passes 100 dollars per barrel raises concern across the markets, for the haulage industry and drivers.

‘There will be gradual increases in pump prices, but this shouldn’t happen overnight as fuel has been purchased at previous prices.’

Get in touch with our news team by emailing us at webnews@metro.co.uk.

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