US oil prices fell more than 3% on Friday, continuing their recent decline. US WTI crude oil fell about $2.27 (3.2%) to around $69.46 per barrel. Global benchmark Brent crude also dropped about $2.48 (3.3%) to around $72.78 per barrel. Oil prices are also heading for sharp weekly losses as worries about supply disruptions have eased.
One major reason for the fall is that more oil tankers have started moving again through the Strait of Hormuz. The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most important shipping routes for crude oil, so smooth movement there reduces fears of supply shortages. Markets now expect that the US and Iran may reach an agreement.
Oil supply improves
If the US-Iran deal happens, Iran could export more crude oil, increasing global oil supply. More oil supply usually puts downward pressure on oil prices. Crude oil exports from the Middle East and West Africa have also increased, reducing fears of supply disruptions, as noted by PTI.
Investors are now closely watching the US-Iran talks for clues about where oil prices will move next. Investors are also monitoring oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, as any disruption there could affect prices again.
Oil Prices then and now
Saudi Arabia’s state oil company Saudi Aramco restarted oil loading at its Ras Tanura terminal after a nearly four-month pause. The restart at Ras Tanura is another sign that oil supply is improving, as noted by Moneycontrol. Three months ago, the situation was completely different as investors feared a major oil supply crisis. The Iran war had pushed oil prices sharply higher during that period.
During the conflict, WTI crude briefly rose above $119 per barrel. Rising oil prices had also pushed gasoline prices higher across the US, as per Yahoo Finance. At one point, the US average gasoline price was above $4.50 per gallon.
In some local US markets, gasoline prices even went above $7 per gallon. Higher fuel prices had raised concerns that inflation could increase again. Because of rising inflation worries, markets even started thinking that the US Federal Reserve might raise interest rates again instead of cutting them.
US inflation outlook
The outlook has now changed because peace negotiations involving Iran have reduced fears of supply disruptions. WTI crude has now fallen back to around $69 per barrel, almost the same level as before the conflict started, as per Yahoo Finance. This shows that markets no longer expect a major disruption in global oil supplies.
Also read: Core PCE inflation hits 3.4%, highest since 2023; raises Fed rate cut doubts
Lower oil prices also reduce one of the biggest factors that pushes inflation higher. However, lower oil prices do not guarantee that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates soon. They do, however, reduce one of the strongest reasons for the Fed to raise interest rates further. Gasoline prices have not fallen as quickly as crude oil prices. This is normal because fuel prices are also affected by refining costs, transportation costs and existing fuel inventories.
US President Donald Trump said gasoline prices should fall faster because crude oil prices have already dropped sharply. Trump has called for further reductions in fuel prices at petrol stations, as per Yahoo Finance report. Lower energy prices are important because fuel costs affect transport, businesses and household expenses across the economy.
