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- Oil prices have risen significantly since the start of the conflict between the United States and Iran and have fluctuated as the sides reached intermittent agreements to put a stop to hostilities, only to see the dispute flare up again
- Most recently, Iran claimed responsibility for attacking two oil tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz under U.S. military escort; this caused West Texas Intermediate futures and Brent crude futures to rise, the former by 2.2% and the latter by 1.5%
- Prediction markets have paid close attention to oil prices during this troubled time and are offering options as to where Brent crude will land on Aug. 3, 2026, at 5 PM EDT
Since the conflict between the United States and Iran started at the end of February 2026, oil prices have risen sharply due to uncertainty over the key transport hub, the Strait of Hormuz, where Iran claims to hold sway as to what can and cannot pass through. As the sides reached uneasy agreements to step back, the price of the U.S. benchmark for oil, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), and the international benchmark, Brent crude, rose and fell.
In the aftermath of the latest incident in which Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said it hit two tankers trying to pass through the strait under U.S. military escort, WTI rose by 2.2% and Brent crude rose by 1.5%. This piggybacks on the Houthis in Yemen jumping into the fray at Iran’s behest and attacking tankers in the Red Sea trying to use the oil route in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. After the strikes in the Strait of Hormuz, four tankers reportedly turned back.
Oil supplies are dwindling with lingering questions as to when a workable peace agreement that both sides will stick to will come to pass. The Black Sea was also under threat as part of the Ukraine-Russia conflict.
In short, this could grow out of control very quickly.
Prediction markets are watching oil prices closely, with a market available to weigh in on the price for Brent crude on Aug. 3, 2026, at 5:00 PM EDT.
Prediction Markets for Brent Crude Oil Price on Monday
Volume for this market is very light at around $1,000.
The price for Brent crude has been bouncing between $87 and approaching $89 since news of the most recent Iranian attacks in the Strait of Hormuz came out.
There is widespread belief that the price will remain above $82.50 by Aug. 3, with the percentages at 90% and above. It drops to the mid-80s for it to be above $83. It is in the low-to-mid-80s to be higher than $83.50 and $84.50. Just over 70% think it will be over $85. Then it drops to the mid-to-upper-60s to be above $85.50, $86, and $86.50. Just over half think it will be $87.50 or higher. Slightly more than 40% say it will stay in the same range it is right now, $88.50 or above.
There is a significant number of investors in this market who think the price will go above $89 and surpass $90.50.
For those who want to take part in this market, the Kalshi Promo Code offers up to a $500 bonus for new users on the platform.
The rules stipulate that the closing price of the 1-minute candlestick for Brent crude oil under the BRENTV6 contract must surpass the selected amount for USD/Bbl (dollars per barrel) on Aug. 3, 2026, at 5:00 PM EDT for the market to resolve to Yes.
Pyth will verify the outcome.
Read on for a detailed breakdown of financial prediction markets for Crude Oil futures.
Will the Dispute Escalate or Forge a Sustainable Agreement?
This is turning into a wash/rinse/repeat situation with the U.S. and Iran refusing to back down and find an agreement that each side can live with. President Donald J. Trump is increasingly boxed in with his options. Iran has shown growing intransigence, but it cannot go much longer with this either.
Rhetoric aside, the incremental worsening of tensions and the reality that it has gone beyond the Strait of Hormuz, has expanded to the Red Sea, and the possibility of it getting to the Black Sea is causing increased fear of an entanglement that cannot be easily unwound.
Will Trump feel the need to try and regain the upper hand in some way after this latest incident? Or will the president go against his nature and take the longer view that his issues at home with rising prices and his base’s unhappiness with his Middle East foray need to be addressed with an agreement with Iran that would preclude him saying it is a “complete victory for the U.S. and capitulation,” a stance that irritated Iran before and played a role in the sides going back to square one?
The longer this goes, the greater the chances are of the Republicans not just losing control of the House of Representatives, but of the Senate as well, which would be disastrous for Trump.
It all ties in with oil prices. A series of retaliatory strikes and a Truth Social explosion from Trump would not help with lowering the temperature or the price of Brent crude.
The strategy when investing in this market depends on the investor’s outlook on what will happen in the coming days. If the U.S. steps back and resists the urge to respond immediately to Iran’s strikes in the Strait of Hormuz, then the prices should stabilize and drop to the low-80s, something the majority of users seem to think will happen.
Still, there is great financial profit to be had by thinking the prices will stay in the same vicinity of where they are right now.
The safe bet might be to go somewhere in the middle of both extremes. Given how this has gone since it started five months ago, that is the wisest course in this market and in this global landscape.
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