Crude oil above $90, US-Iran tensions and Fed signals are set to guide Sensex and Nifty this week. |
New Delhi: are likely to remain sensitive to global developments this week, with crude oil prices, the US-Iran conflict and signals from the US Federal Reserve expected to guide investor sentiment, according to analysts.
Brent crude holding above $90 per barrel remains a key concern for India, while geopolitical uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz could keep markets volatile.
Fed policy in focus
Ajit Mishra, SVP, Research at Religare Broking Ltd, said investors will closely follow the Jackson Hole symposium for indications about the future path of US interest rates.
durable goods orders and consumer confidence data will also be watched for clues about the health of the world’s largest economy and the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook.
In India, investors will track movements in the rupee, foreign institutional flows and domestic liquidity conditions.
US-Iran conflict remains key risk
Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, said global investors will focus on three major factors — the Federal Reserve’s policy trajectory, Nvidia’s quarterly earnings and the unresolved US-Iran conflict.
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole address will be closely watched amid volatile US Treasury yields, persistent inflation concerns and signs of weakness in the labour market.
Crude oil prices remain another major external risk.
The expiry of the 60-day US-Iran agreement without a lasting settlement has kept uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz and regional energy supplies elevated.
Nifty may see marginal recovery
Foreign portfolio investors have stepped up their buying of Indian equities, investing ₹23,544 crore so far in August.
However, benchmark indices ended lower last week. The BSE Sensex fell 468.42 points, or 0.60%, while the NSE Nifty declined 114 points, or 0.46%.
Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research, Wealth Management at Motilal Oswal Financial Services, expects Indian markets to consolidate after two weeks of correction, with scope for a marginal near-term recovery.
Investors will particularly watch Brent crude prices and geopolitical developments for the market’s next direction.
