Cocoa prices extended their decline on Friday, with US cocoa falling around 8% as comfortable near-term supplies continued to weigh on the market. Prices are now down almost 18% this month, putting cocoa on track for its first monthly decline since February. Exchange-monitored inventories in both Europe and the US remain relatively ample, while demand recovery has been slow as manufacturers continue efforts to reduce cocoa usage following the period of elevated prices. Despite the recent sell-off, concerns over deteriorating crop prospects in Ivory Coast and Ghana, together with the risk of a strong El Niño event, continue to support expectations of a supply deficit in the 2026/27 season.
Western Australia’s Grain Association raised its forecast for the 2026/27 wheat crop to 10mt from 9mt, reflecting improved rainfall and better yield prospects. However, output is still expected to fall short of last season’s record 13.3mt harvest. While recent weather conditions have improved production potential, heat remains the key risk. Hot winds across major growing areas and limited rainfall forecasts are likely to keep crop conditions under pressure through the remainder of the season.
Chinese customs data show corn imports rose to 320kt in August, taking cumulative imports for the first eight months of the year to 1.7mt, up 91.1% YoY. The increase reflects efforts by traders to diversify sourcing away from the US amid rising trade tensions and policy uncertainty. Wheat imports also strengthened, rising 13.4% YoY to 260kt in August, while cumulative January-August imports increased 35.6% YoY to 3.5mt.
Russia’s Agriculture Ministry reported that grain harvests had reached 120mt as of 18 September, including more than 90mt of wheat, with wheat harvesting around 92% complete. Meanwhile, farmers had sown 6m hectares of winter crops, against a target of more than 19m hectares for this year’s planting campaign.
In France, crop conditions continue to deteriorate following the summer heatwave. The Agriculture Ministry reported that just 23% of the corn crop was rated good to excellent as of 14 September, down from the previous week and well below the 62% recorded a year ago. Harvest progress accelerated, with 27% of the crop collected, up from 9% the previous week and ahead of the five-year average of 5%.
