Crude oil and condensate exports from the Persian Gulf rose to pre-war levels in the first half of July, data from Kpler and Vortexa shows, as cited by Reuters, reaching between 12 and 13.6 million barrels daily.
The recovery is unlikely to last, however, as traffic via the Strait of Hormuz once again slows to a trickle amid the renewed hostilities between the United States and Iran.
Oil and condensate flows out of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iraq, Iran, and Kuwait rose by 16% from June over the first two weeks of this month, the data showed. Kpler pegged the daily average at 12 million barrels daily, while Vortexa estimated it at 13.6 million barrels daily.
According to Kpler, Iran, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia posted the biggest monthly increase in exports. Vortexa estimated that Iraq led the recovery with the biggest monthly increase. The recovery trend has already reversed, however, with the analytics firms noting a sharp drop in tanker crossings in the Strait of Hormuz.
“We’re seeing a slowdown in activity, which means that countries will have to reduce output, which decreases the amount of crude that will be shipped,” Kpler analyst Johannes Rauball said, as quoted by Reuters.
Bloomberg, meanwhile, reported earlier today that a tanker appears to have stopped in the waterway following Iranian strikes on vessels there.
“The coming days and weeks will provide a clearer picture of the sustainable level of oil exports from the region under renewed dual blockades,” Barclays analyst Amarpreet Singh said, as quoted by Reuters. Iran and the United States are now both targeting vessels in the Strait, with the U.S. focusing on Iranian and Iran-linked vessels while Iran targets ships from U.S. allied countries. The flare-up of hostilities has pushed Brent crude back above $90 per barrel. WTI crude was trading at $84.25 per barrel at the time of writing.
By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com
