Why did crude oil not soar to $150 even though the Strait of Hormuz remains “closed”?
The report by Nikkei on the “surge in shadow tankers and 60% supply recovery” is the core of the answer.
Ships with their location data turned off are quietly transporting oil.
This invisible logistics network is currently supporting gasoline prices and stock prices.
Data flow
“Shadow tankers” are tankers that hide their routes by turning off their AIS (Automatic Identification System) or spoofing their signals.
In normal times, this operation would be borderline illegal, but since the conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran at the end of February 2026, the Strait of Hormuz has remained in a state of de facto blockade.
On the normal route, insurance costs are extremely high, and major shipping companies avoid passage.
As a result, there has been an increase in movements using the southern corridor off the coast of Oman and ship-to-ship transfers outside the strait.
Nikkei’s “60% supply” figure is organized as the degree of recovery relative to Middle Eastern crude oil supply before the conflict.
However, one must be careful in how to interpret the numbers.
Some tracking data shows that while normal traffic is about 80 to 130 ships per day, recent traffic is minimal.
On the other hand, estimates from sources like Kpler and S&P suggest that when accounting for escort corridors involving the US Navy, pipelines, and ship-to-ship transfers outside the strait, a volume of 6 to 10 million barrels per day is moving.
In other words, it is not “officially open,” but rather in a state of “somehow flowing, even if it is hidden and expensive.”
There is not just one background factor.
The circumstances of Gulf oil-producing countries that cannot stop exports, the US’s desire to let crude oil from partner countries pass through, and the fact that insurance and freight costs are too high for regular ships to enter.
These factors have overlapped, making near-shadow transport the primary route.
Market and money flow
WTI crude oil futures are around $91 to $95 per barrel as of around September 25. In recent trading, the $92 range has also been confirmed.
It has not reached the $150 level that was feared immediately after the crisis.
However, it is also completely different from the $60 range seen in normal times.
What the market is pricing in is not ‘zero supply,’ but a ‘partial recovery with high transportation costs.’
In fact, freight rates for very large crude carriers from the Persian Gulf to China are at record highs, and there are instances where freight costs account for over 20% of the crude oil price.
There are also reports that war risk insurance premiums are dozens of times higher than in normal times.
The reaction in stocks and foreign exchange is not simple.
While high crude oil prices are an inflationary pressure, avoiding $150 also supports risk assets as a ‘retreat of the worst-case scenario.’
The axis of conflict among analysts is clear.
One side views that ‘the worst period has passed due to shadow shipping and the drawdown of stockpiles.’
The other side views that ‘supply dependent on escorts and insurance will dry up in an instant if attacks reignite.’
Both agree that relying solely on visible traffic volume will lead to misjudgment.
Flow to daily life and investment
When applied to Japan, there is a gap with reality.
The national average for regular gasoline is currently around 170 yen per liter (as of late September, it is in the high 160s).
Because the government is suppressing it to ‘around 170 yen’ with subsidies, the volatility of international crude oil is not being fully passed on to the pump.
However, subsidies are stability bought with public funds.
Dependence on the Middle East has fallen from over 90% previously, but a significant portion of Japan’s crude oil is still from the Middle East. The gap has been filled by a surge in U.S. production.
The path to household budgets is not just gasoline.
Naphtha (petrochemical feedstock), logistics costs, food packaging, and freight rates.
Oil permeates into areas wider than just the ‘numbers at the gas station.’
A perspective you should maintain as an individual is the separation of time horizons.
On a short time horizon, shadow tankers and subsidies are keeping a lid on price ceilings.
In the medium term, the “$85–$100 range,” which includes freight, insurance, and escort costs, is likely to become the norm.
On a long time horizon, the core issue is how much dependence on the Middle East can be reduced, and whether stockpiles and alternative procurement will truly function.
This is not about buying specific stocks.
The structure where “invisible ships support visible prices” should not be judged solely by news headlines.
I believe that is the best way to make these figures relevant to yourself.
This concludes the summary of the publicly available figures and reports.
However, between this “60% recovery” and the “$92” price point, there is an information asymmetry that most individual investors and consumers rarely see.
Who grasps the real-time reality, and who loses money by judging only by headlines?
From here on, I will specifically break down why those who understand that gap are able to take positions in both their careers and investments.
This is a paid article from this point forward.
