India has secured adequate crude oil and liquefied petroleum gas supplies through at least August, easing concerns over domestic availability as the rapid return of Gulf barrels shifts the global oil market increasingly in favour of buyers.
“We have secured adequate LPG supplies through at least August, while crude availability remains comfortable. With more barrels returning to the market, procurement conditions have shifted in favour of buyers,” a senior oil marketing company official said.
The official said the immediate supply risk had eased considerably as refiners had already tied up cargoes well in advance and sourcing options had widened. “There is no concern on crude availability at present. Refiners have diversified supplies and the market now has more sellers than buyers,” the official added.
The change in market conditions follows a sharp recovery in Gulf exports after the reopening of the strait of hormuz.
“India’s crude supply remains resilient despite recent geopolitical disruptions,” said Sumit Ritolia, senior manager for modelling at Kpler. “Over the past 100 days, India has arguably been one of the best-positioned major importers, successfully maintaining crude inflows through proactive diversification and procurement strategies.”
India’s crude imports have broadly returned to pre-conflict levels after refiners replaced disrupted Middle Eastern supplies with barrels from Russia, the US, Oman, West Africa and South America. Russian crude remained central to the strategy, averaging around 2.2-2.3 million bpd in May and June, higher than year-ago levels.
“Russia continues to be India’s single most important crude supplier and remains at the core of the country’s import strategy,” Ritolia said. He added that refiners typically procure crude one to two months in advance, leaving requirements through August largely covered.
The supply environment beyond August also remains supportive. Higher exports from Africa, Russia and Venezuela, increased OPEC+ production and continued crude flows through Hormuz are expected to give Indian refiners multiple sourcing options.
Physical crude prices have already responded to the returning supply. Some West African grades are trading at discounts of $4-11 a barrel to Dated Brent, while Oman, Dubai and Murban have also moved to wider discounts. HSBC said the prompt Brent curve had briefly moved into contango, signalling ample near-term availability.
Ritolia said India was unlikely to see any meaningful rise in Iranian crude imports immediately. “Indian refiners are already largely covered through the first half of August, leaving little immediate need for additional purchases,” he said. One or two opportunistic cargoes could emerge in July or August, but any sustained return would depend on the regulatory environment after the current sanctions waiver expires on August 21.
