India has quietly strengthened its energy security at a time of heightened geopolitical uncertainty, rebuilding crude oil inventories while importing record volumes of Russian oil.
The trend, highlighted by energy economist and former NGP Energy Capital Management chief economist Anas Alhajji, underscores how New Delhi has balanced rising fuel demand, robust exports and supply chain risks.
According to Alhajji, India’s crude oil imports from Russia climbed to a record high in June, helping the country replenish its oil inventories after earlier drawdowns. He noted that the recent decline in inventory levels was primarily driven by a sharp increase in petroleum product exports rather than supply disruptions.
The inventory data also reflects a strong recovery in 2026 after a mid-year slump. Weekly crude stocks fell to around 85 million barrels near Week 15 before rebounding steadily, crossing 107 million barrels by Week 25 — the highest level recorded this year. Although inventories have moderated since then, they remain broadly in line with historical averages.
Russian oil continues to anchor India’s supply
Russia has emerged as India’s largest crude supplier since Western sanctions reshaped global oil trade following the Ukraine conflict. Discounted Russian crude has enabled Indian refiners to maintain high operating rates while exporting refined products such as diesel, gasoline and jet fuel to international markets.
Alhajji pointed out that much of India’s Russian crude imports transit through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, one of the world’s most strategically important maritime chokepoints connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden.
A critical vulnerability remains
Despite the recent improvement in inventories, Alhajji warned that India’s dependence on this shipping route poses a significant strategic risk.
“Most of India’s imports via the Bab Al Mandab Strait come from Russia, which is unaffected by the current crisis. However, if Bab el-Mandeb were closed for any reason, India would suffer greatly,” he wrote on X.
Any prolonged disruption in the strait could force vessels to take the much longer route around the Cape of Good Hope, increasing freight costs, transit times and insurance premiums. Such a scenario could tighten crude supplies, pressure refinery margins and potentially raise domestic fuel prices.
With global shipping lanes increasingly exposed to geopolitical tensions, India’s ability to maintain adequate crude inventories while diversifying supply routes will remain central to its energy security strategy.
