Good morning.
It is Wednesday morning, September 30. Today’s key topics are the persistence of high US long-term interest rates, the decline in crude oil prices, and the accelerating competition in AI agents.
US stocks were slightly lower on the 29th. The S&P 500 fell 0.17%, the Nasdaq dropped 0.08%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.26%. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note rose to the 5.29% level at one point. Reuters
Stocks, Investment, and Foreign Exchange
The market briefly priced in a roughly 70% probability of an additional Federal Reserve rate hike in October, but this fell to about 50% after New York Fed President Williams indicated that there is no need to rush into further rate hikes. Reuters
In the foreign exchange market, the dollar remains strong, with the dollar-yen pair at around 157.30 yen per dollar on the 29th. While the dollar is prone to being bought because the 10-year US interest rate is over 5%, there is caution regarding potential currency intervention by Japanese and US authorities in the event of a rapid depreciation of the yen. Reuters
For today’s Japanese stocks, the dollar-yen rate and US long-term interest rates are important.
Crude oil falls to the $102 range
There was some positive movement for crude oil.
Brent crude closed 2.6% lower at $102.59, and WTI finished 3.5% lower at $89.38.
This is against the backdrop of a recovery in crude oil exports from the Middle East. Export volumes from Middle Eastern oil-producing countries in September have returned to their highest levels since the start of the war between the US/Israel and Iran. Reuters
Furthermore, the US government announced a policy to lend up to 40 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to energy companies. Reuters
Politics and Society
US imposes additional sanctions related to Iran
Meanwhile, the situation in the Middle East itself has not been resolved.
On the 29th, the US government announced new sanctions on 13 individuals and entities linked to China, Russia, Hong Kong, Pakistan, and others for supporting Iran’s procurement of weapons and components. Reuters
Although crude oil supply is recovering, the conflict between the US and Iran continues.
Therefore, crude oil is:
Supply recovery → Price decline
On the other hand,
Worsening Middle East situation → Rebound
This unstable state is likely to continue.
Impact on daily life and investment
For Japan, the drop in crude oil from the $105 range to the $102 range is a positive factor.
If the decline in crude oil continues, it will weaken upward pressure on gasoline, electricity, and logistics costs.
However, the dollar-yen is in the 157 range.
In Japan, it remains important to look at it through
‘crude oil price × dollar-yen’
as a metric.
In terms of investment, lower crude oil prices are a positive for aviation and transportation, but could be a headwind for energy stocks.
AI & Technology
OpenAI announces ‘AI that does work on its own’
This is the most noteworthy news in the AI field today.
OpenAI announced a new AI agent for businesses called ‘dots’ on the 29th.
This is an AI that continues to work across multiple apps without humans having to give detailed instructions every time.
It automatically updates sales materials, manages projects, creates demos, and integrates with Slack and Teams. Reuters
The AI race is rapidly advancing from
‘AI that answers questions’
→
‘AI that works with humans’
→
‘AI that does work on its own’
.
AI safety is also a major theme
Meanwhile, Anthropic explicitly stated in its IPO documents that there is a risk that advanced AI could engage in unexpected behaviors, such as resisting shutdown or manipulating information. Reuters
In AI investment, from now on, we need to look at
profitability, safety, and whether massive investments can be recouped
rather than just performance.
Three key points for today
1. US interest rates remain above 5%
US stocks dipped slightly. Expectations for additional rate hikes have receded somewhat, but high interest rates remain a burden on AI and growth stocks. Reuters
2. Crude oil falls to $102.59
This is driven by a recovery in exports from the Middle East. While this is a positive factor for Japanese households, we must continue to monitor the situation in the Middle East. Reuters
3. AI enters the ‘doing work on its own’ stage
OpenAI has announced a new AI agent. The focus of the AI race is shifting from chat to actual task execution. Reuters
What to watch today
For today’s Japanese stocks, I want to check the dollar-yen rate, US long-term interest rates, crude oil, and semiconductor/AI stocks.
In particular,
falling crude oil prices → positive for Japan
while
US interest rates over 5% + a weak yen → caution needed for stocks and households
is the current situation.
Regarding AI, as shown by OpenAI’s new agent, **’to what extent AI can take over human work’** is likely to be the next major theme.
Thank you for reading until the end.
If you found this helpful, please be sure to **’Like’** and ‘Follow’.
