OPEC+ will remain unlikely to react strongly. Producers are most likely going to maintain the pumped volume for the month of October, following the completion of the reversal of voluntary supply cuts of 1.65 million bpd, at the meeting scheduled for Sunday.
The U.S. is also taking steps to examine its emergency reserves. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve has fallen to a 44-year low, and Energy Secretary Chris Wright said the U.S. is considering swaps of Venezuelan heavy crude, to restock.
The fundamentals of Natural gas are split. Increased U.S. production and more LNG exports continue, while Gulf LNG supply remains very constrained. Qatar and the UAE have undertaken rare ship-to-ship LNG transfers outside Hormuz, to keep cargoes moving, with Asian spot LNG prices more than doubling pre-war.
On September 3, the key points are equilibrium maintenance in global oil and LNG supply, and an imbalance in supply due to the Gulf conflict. The temporary relief that higher Iraqi export quotas, steady OPEC+ policy, and stronger U.S. gas supply provide does buy some time.
For October, the continental U.S. is set to receive a record amount of LNG. Russian sanctions and strong European demand are expected to maintain high prices, despite the record level supply.
