Saudi Aramco has cut off crude oil deliveries to multiple European refining customers after drone attacks damaged the kingdom’s East-West pipeline, a critical artery that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz and feeds the Yanbu export terminal on the Red Sea coast.
At least three European refiners have been notified that September cargoes are canceled or delayed, with potentially two more set to receive the same news. No Saudi crude shipments have left Yanbu since September 11, and the terminal reportedly holds only about five days’ worth of inventory.
The pipeline and the price spike
The East-West pipeline, also known as the Petroline, was shut down as a precaution following drone strikes that occurred around September 10. Before the attack, the pipeline had a transporting capacity of between 5 and 7 million barrels per day.
Brent crude futures have surged to near $108 per barrel in response. Physical European cargo prices tell an even more dramatic story, climbing to approximately $122 per barrel as refiners compete for dwindling spot supplies.
The attacks have been linked to Iraqi militias, with possible Houthi involvement. Repairs to the pipeline are expected to take between three and six weeks.
Europe’s refining crunch
The most exposed player in this mess is Poland’s Orlen, which depends on Saudi Aramco for roughly 40% of the feedstock across its three refineries.
European refiners across the continent are now racing to secure replacement barrels from the North Sea and Mediterranean regions. The gap between Brent futures and physical cargo prices, already at $14 per barrel, reflects how tight the actual market for deliverable oil has become.
Saudi Aramco has rerouted some crude volumes to Asian buyers through its eastern terminals at Ras Tanura and Juaymah, which remain operational.
Geopolitical backdrop and broader market stress
The East-West pipeline was responsible for moving between 2.6 and 4 million barrels per day before the attack. Even at the lower end of that range, removing that volume from the European supply picture for a month or more represents a meaningful shock that can’t be fully absorbed by rerouting through other channels.
European governments now face higher energy input costs flowing through to consumer prices, potential refinery throughput reductions if alternative crude can’t be sourced quickly enough, and renewed questions about the continent’s energy security architecture. The shift away from Russian oil after 2022 increased Europe’s dependence on Middle Eastern suppliers, and that dependence is now being stress-tested in real time.
