The Nasdaq was almost flat, and the semiconductor index was -0.29%. In Tokyo yesterday, over 70% of stocks declined.
Good morning, this is Rin. Let’s start our morning market preparations together again today.
[October 21 Update | US Corporate Earnings Flash Report]
Netflix (NFLX) | 2026 Q3 Earnings
Revenue was almost in line with market expectations, and profits exceeded them.
Meanwhile, the 2026 advertising revenue outlook was revised downward from approximately $3 billion to approximately $2.7 billion. The outlook for the next period also fell short of market expectations, and the stock price fell about 6% in after-hours trading following the earnings announcement.
Even with increased revenue and profit, the results showed that future growth expectations drive the stock price.
Source: Netflix Official Earnings Materials (SEC)
🚀 SpaceX (SPCX) | 2026 Q3 Earnings
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Revenue: $14.58 billion (+161% YoY)
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Market expectation: $12.72 billion → Significantly exceeded
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Net income: $4.4 billion (compared to a $1.1 billion loss in the same period last year)
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Adjusted EBITDA: $8.8 billion (+306% YoY)
The rapid expansion of the AI business and the growth of the satellite communication service ‘Starlink’ drove performance. They achieved significant revenue growth and a return to profitability.
While the growth of the AI business is particularly notable, massive capital investment will be a point of focus moving forward.
In addition to rockets and satellite communications, this earnings report clearly shows growth as an AI infrastructure company.
Source: SpaceX Official Earnings Materials (SEC)
Today’s conclusion
In the US, the Dow rose +1.02% due to a series of better-than-expected earnings and a pause in crude oil prices.
Meanwhile, the Nasdaq was almost flat at -0.02%, and the semiconductor index was -0.29%, showing that AI-related stocks are still under pressure. Crude oil briefly exceeded $110 during trading but has since fallen. In Tokyo yesterday, AI-related stocks were sold off, causing the Nikkei average to drop by
841.28 yen, but this morning’s Nikkei 225 futures are at 64,957 yen, which is about 880 yen higher than the closing price.
Yesterday’s confirmation point: Will the semiconductor index (SOX) continue to rise?
→ It did not continue to rise. The closing price was 11,283.81 (-32.53 / -0.29%). It was a day of large fluctuations, falling to 11,043 at the start of trading and then recovering to 11,460.
Today’s Market Board
* Nikkei 225 futures are about 880 yen higher than the cash closing price this morning. * Crude oil will be tracked using the December contract starting today. The November contract, which finished trading on the 20th, briefly exceeded $110 before closing at $101.79, marking its first decline in 9 business days.
Three Important News Items
① Factors that moved the overall market
The Dow was pushed up by better-than-expected earnings. Airline companies American Airlines and United Airlines rose on expectations of lower fuel costs. Crude oil saw Brent crude briefly rise to nearly $112, partly due to warnings from Iran’s Revolutionary Guard that they would target undersea communication cables in the Strait of Hormuz. It has since fallen back.
② Sector/Theme: AI/Semiconductors
Semiconductor stocks narrowed their losses from the start of trading. Bank of America views last week’s decline as a “temporary stumble caused by position adjustments around AI-related stocks.” However, CoreWeave has fallen more than 40% since October 6th to reach its lowest level in about 17 months, and the cost of insuring Oracle’s corporate bonds has also reached its highest level since 2021. Concerns about the debt of AI-related companies persist.
③ Factors likely to affect the Japanese market
In Tokyo yesterday, AI and semiconductor-related stocks were sold off due to anxiety over AI investment, and the Nikkei average fell by over 1,100 yen at one point. The biggest drag on the Nikkei average was SoftBank Group (about 235 yen), followed by Tokyo Electron and Advantest. While 76% of stocks on the TSE Prime market fell, pharmaceutical and gaming-related stocks rose. This morning’s futures are at 64,957 yen, suggesting a potential attempt at a recovery today.
Stocks to Watch
What I want to check most today
Will the Nasdaq rise following the earnings of Netflix and SpaceX? (October 20 closing price 26,424)
* Netflix 10/21 (Wed) scheduled for announcement around 5:01 AM Tesla 10/22 (Thu) early morning
Today’s Schedule
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Japan: September trade statistics. Earnings announcements for 3 companies
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US: Meta, Tesla, IBM, and Texas Instruments report earnings (after the close of US trading = tomorrow morning Japan time)
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22nd (Thu): Disco / 23rd (Fri): Japan’s national consumer price index, Fanuc
Today’s 30-second explanation
What is guidance?
It refers to the ‘future performance outlook’ that a company releases along with its earnings report.
It is said that stock prices are more likely to react to future outlooks than to the results of the past three months.
Yesterday, GM fell significantly because, even though its earnings exceeded expectations, its full-year profit outlook did not meet market expectations.
📖 You can review past 30-second explanations one by one each day in the app (the days you read them will be marked on the calendar) https://rincanvas-hash.github.io/okane-kuse/
Today’s NISA perspective
Yesterday, the Dow was up 1.02%, but the S&P 500 was up 0.28%.
The Dow is an index based on the stock prices of 30 companies, while the S&P 500 is an index that totals 500 companies according to their market size.
The ‘Dow up X dollars’ often heard in the news and the price movements of S&P 500 or All Country investment trusts do not necessarily move in the same way.
Rin’s note
It was a day with large price swings, such as crude oil exceeding $110 before falling.
Tonight are the earnings reports for Meta and Tesla.
There should be a lot of talk about AI investment, so let’s check together tomorrow morning to see if the anxiety from last week eases.
Source: AP (BNN Bloomberg) / Yahoo Finance / Zaikei Shimbun (FISCO)
Disclaimer
This is not investment advice, but a personal information organization memo. Please make your own investment decisions.
