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In the past 30 days alone, oil prices have risen over 56%, underscoring the scale of the ongoing supply shock
A Crude Oil Drilling Platform. (File Photo)
US–Iran war: Brent crude prices have surged more than 60% since the onset of the US–Iran–Israel conflict, climbing to around $112 per barrel on Monday from nearly $70 at the start of hostilities, as disruptions to global energy supply intensify.
In the past 30 days alone, oil prices have risen about 56%, underscoring the scale of the ongoing supply shock.
On Monday, US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 52 cents to $98.75 per barrel, building on a 2.27% gain in the previous session. Back home, crude prices on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) also remained firm, rising 1.12% to ₹9,360 per barrel.
Why are crude oil prices rising?
The rally in oil prices is being driven by escalating tensions in West Asia, which have disrupted critical supply routes—most notably the Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery for global crude trade.
The crisis has also strained global liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies. Attacks on energy infrastructure in Qatar, including strikes by Iran, have damaged key facilities and impacted nearly 17% of the country’s LNG export capacity.
On Saturday, US President Donald Trump warned that Iran’s power plants could be “obliterated” if the Strait of Hormuz was not fully reopened within 48 hours—just a day after signalling a possible de-escalation in the conflict, now in its fourth week.
In response, Iranian Minister Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf said on X that key infrastructure and energy assets across the Middle East could face “irreversible destruction” if Iranian power plants were targeted.
Meanwhile, Iraq has declared force majeure across all oilfields operated by foreign companies, according to energy officials. Production at Basra Oil Company has been slashed to 900,000 barrels per day from 3.3 million bpd, Oil Minister Hayan Abdel-Ghani said, as reported by Reuters.
What’s the near-term outlook for crude oil prices?
Goldman Sachs has raised its 2026 average forecast for Brent crude to $85 per barrel from $77, and for WTI to $79 from $72.
The firm also expects Brent to average $110 per barrel in March and April, up from its earlier estimate of $98, as markets price in a higher risk premium amid uncertainty over the duration of supply disruptions.
“The price when uncertainty peaks may be $135/bbl if the market requires a risk premium to generate precautionary demand destruction offsetting supply losses over six months, in a risk scenario involving 10 weeks of very low flows and 2 million barrels a day of persistent production losses,” Goldman Sachs was quoted as saying by Reuters.
Meanwhile, Anindya Banerjee, Head of Commodity and Currency Research at Kotak Securities, said that if tensions ease and the Strait of Hormuz remains open, energy prices and broader risk assets could see a sharp reversal. However, as long as the threat of disruption or closure persists, the risk premium may continue to expand.
He also flagged the Bab el-Mandeb chokepoint in the Red Sea as another key risk area, where any escalation involving the Houthis could further amplify supply concerns.
On the technical front, Banerjee noted, “Brent holding above $100 keeps the bullish structure intact, with $120 acting as a key resistance level—above which prices could move towards $130–135 in an escalation scenario.”
March 23, 2026, 11:35 IST
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