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India may soon hike petrol and diesel prices as crude stays above 100 dollars, with OMCs facing heavy losses and the government shifting stance after earlier denials
Fuel Price Freeze May End As Govt Reconsiders Stance
The Indian government is considering passing the higher crude oil prices to customers in the coming days and can increase the prices of petrol and diesel. According to a Moneycontrol report, oil marketing companies may raise petrol and diesel prices in the coming days to offset the mounting losses from selling fuel below cost.
Since the start of the conflict, the crude oil prices have spiked sharply to cross $100 per barrel. The prices have been above the mark for the past two months. The spike can be seen in the fact that crude oil futures were trading around $70 per barrel before the war.
State-run Oil market companies have been bracing for the higher crude oil prices since the war and government hasn’t allowed them to increase the prices.
Some private oil companies, meanwhile, hiked the prices in the two months to offset the losses of higher crude oil prices.
“Oil marketing companies (OMCs) are currently facing under-recoveries on petrol, diesel and LPG sales and are in constant discussions with the Petroleum and Finance Ministries, where a possible price hike is being considered,” a senior government told Moneycontrol.
Earlier in March, Petroleum and Natural Gas Minister Hardeep Singh Puri had noted that OMCs were incurring losses of about Rs 24 per litre on petrol and Rs 30 per litre on diesel, as retail fuel prices remained unchanged even after crude oil prices crossed the $100 per barrel mark.
This marks the shift in the government’s narrative. In some instances earlier, the government denied any plans to increase the petrol and diesel prices.
Kotak Institutional Equities earlier warned that Petrol and diesel prices in India could see a sharp upward revision after the ongoing Assembly elections, with a potential rising of Rs 25–28 per litre.
Kotak also highlighted a widening gap between crude futures and physical markets, signalling persistent supply stress and limited near-term easing.
The surge in crude prices has sharply increased India’s import burden. The Indian crude basket has risen significantly in March and April, and despite a 13–15% drop in import volumes, the daily import bill has climbed by an estimated $190–210 million.
However, retail fuel prices have remained unchanged so far. According to Kotak, this has increased pressure on refiners, with an estimated impact of about Rs 270 billion per month. Government measures such as a Rs 10 per litre excise duty cut and the reintroduction of windfall export taxes have provided only partial relief.
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