Nigeria’s crude oil production is projected to rise to 1.72 million barrels per day (bpd) in the fourth quarter of 2026, with average output expected to reach 1.62 million bpd for the full year, according to Dangote Group.
The projection is contained in the group’s H1 2026 Economic Report, which expects production to increase from about 1.55 million bpd in the second quarter to 1.70 million bpd in the third quarter, before rising further in the final three months of the year.
The report also projects Brent crude oil prices to average about $90 per barrel in 2026, with prices expected to ease to $85 per barrel in the fourth quarter as geopolitical tensions de-escalate.
Dangote Group projects higher oil production in H2
According to the report, Nigeria’s crude production outlook points to a gradual increase in output through the second half of the year.
- “Staff project crude production to rise further, from about 1.55mbpd in the second quarter to about 1.70mbpd in the third — a level the July outturn has already validated — and 1.72mbpd in the fourth, for a full-year average near 1.62mbpd,” the report stated.
The projection comes after Nigeria’s crude oil output remained above 1.5 million bpd for the third consecutive month in July 2026, despite a decline from June.
The projected increase would require production to build on the gains recorded in the first half and sustain higher output through the remainder of the year.
Brent crude projected to average $90 in 2026
Dangote Group also expects international oil prices to remain elevated in the third quarter before easing towards the end of the year.
The report projects Brent crude to average about $82 per barrel in the second quarter and close to $95 in the third quarter, before declining to around $85 in the fourth quarter.
- “On price, staff assume Brent averages about $82/bbl in the second quarter, close to $95/bbl in the third — a path the quarter is tracking, with the mid-August spike above $102/bbl giving way to about $92/bbl by the start of September — and about $85/bbl in the fourth as de escalation holds, for a full-year average near $90/bbl,” the report stated.
The outlook assumes that geopolitical tensions ease in the final quarter, allowing crude prices to moderate from their third-quarter levels.
Nigeria targets higher oil production
Nigeria has been working to increase crude oil production and expand its hydrocarbon reserves as part of efforts to boost export earnings and government revenue.
The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) put the country’s crude oil and condensate reserves at 37.01 billion barrels as of January 1, 2026, alongside natural gas reserves of 215.19 trillion cubic feet.
The commission has also said Nigeria remains on course to achieve its target of producing 3 million barrels of crude oil per day by 2030.
Separately, the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited has outlined plans to increase the country’s gas reserves from about 210 trillion cubic feet to approximately 600 trillion cubic feet.
