June WTI crude oil futures surged this week, with the contract trading at $105.88 Thursday night, up $11.48 or 12.16%. The weekly high is $110.93, while the low is $94.59. With Friday still ahead, the market has not closed the week yet, but the move has already been one of the strongest rallies in months.
The buying was not random. Traders reacted to a series of major events between April 26 and April 30 that all pointed toward tighter supply. The biggest drivers were the U.S.-Iran standoff, stalled peace talks, the Strait of Hormuz disruption, the UAE’s decision to leave OPEC+, and a bullish U.S. inventory report.
Iran Standoff Keeps Supply Risk Front and Center
The main story this week was the worsening conflict tied to Iran and the Strait of Hormuz. Crude started the week firm after peace talks failed to produce a deal. Iran had offered to reopen the Strait of Hormuz if nuclear talks were delayed, but that offer did not lead to a breakthrough.
That mattered because the Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most important oil transit routes. When traders believe flows through that region could remain limited, they do not wait for perfect data. They start pricing in risk right away.
By Monday, WTI had already climbed back toward the upper $90s, while Brent moved above $108. The market was reacting to the idea that the disruption could last longer than expected.
UAE Exit From OPEC+ Adds a New Supply Shock
The UAE’s decision to leave…
June WTI crude oil futures surged this week, with the contract trading at $105.88 Thursday night, up $11.48 or 12.16%. The weekly high is $110.93, while the low is $94.59. With Friday still ahead, the market has not closed the week yet, but the move has already been one of the strongest rallies in months.
The buying was not random. Traders reacted to a series of major events between April 26 and April 30 that all pointed toward tighter supply. The biggest drivers were the U.S.-Iran standoff, stalled peace talks, the Strait of Hormuz disruption, the UAE’s decision to leave OPEC+, and a bullish U.S. inventory report.
Iran Standoff Keeps Supply Risk Front and Center
The main story this week was the worsening conflict tied to Iran and the Strait of Hormuz. Crude started the week firm after peace talks failed to produce a deal. Iran had offered to reopen the Strait of Hormuz if nuclear talks were delayed, but that offer did not lead to a breakthrough.
That mattered because the Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most important oil transit routes. When traders believe flows through that region could remain limited, they do not wait for perfect data. They start pricing in risk right away.
By Monday, WTI had already climbed back toward the upper $90s, while Brent moved above $108. The market was reacting to the idea that the disruption could last longer than expected.
UAE Exit From OPEC+ Adds a New Supply Shock
The UAE’s decision to leave OPEC+ added another major twist. On its own, that move could eventually raise questions about future production increases and looser supply later on. But in the short run, it created more uncertainty.
Traders do not like sudden changes inside producer groups during a supply crisis. The UAE exit raised doubts about OPEC+ unity at a time when the market was already dealing with blocked flows, rerouted cargoes, and reduced Middle East exports.
ADNOC also began rerouting some crude loadings outside the Gulf because of the Hormuz closure. That showed traders the disruption was not just political noise. It was already affecting shipping decisions.
U.S. Inventory Report Confirms Tight Market Conditions
The rally gained more support Wednesday after the EIA reported a much larger-than-expected U.S. crude oil draw. Crude inventories fell by 6.2 million barrels, far bigger than the small draw traders had expected.
Cushing stocks also fell by 796,000 barrels. That matters because Cushing is the delivery hub for WTI futures. A draw there usually gets traders’ attention.
The report also showed U.S. crude exports hit a record 6.438 million barrels per day. That helped explain the inventory decline and showed strong demand for U.S. barrels while global supply routes remain under stress.
Gasoline and distillate inventories also fell. That made the report even more bullish because it pointed to firm fuel demand, not just a one-time crude movement.
Price Spike Accelerates as Peace Hopes Fade
By Wednesday, the rally had turned aggressive. WTI settled at $106.88, its highest level since early April, while Brent pushed above $118 and later traded near $120 after hours.
The move reflected a market losing confidence in a quick diplomatic solution. President Trump was reported to be unhappy with Iran’s latest proposal, and traders began preparing for the chance that the blockade and Hormuz disruption could last longer.
Goldman Sachs also raised its oil price forecasts this week, citing tighter supply from the Middle East. That added weight to the bullish argument because major banks were now adjusting their outlook to reflect the supply shock.
Thursday Pullback Does Not Erase the Bullish Week
On Thursday, crude turned volatile. Prices spiked early, with WTI reaching the weekly high of $110.93, before pulling back. That retreat looked more like profit-taking than a full change in sentiment.
The market had already rallied hard from Monday’s low, so some selling was expected. Traders also reacted to shifting headlines about possible U.S. military action and the lack of clear progress in talks with Iran.
Still, even after the pullback, June WTI remained sharply higher for the week. Holding near $105.88 after such a large move shows that the market is still carrying a strong risk premium.
Weekly Light Crude Oil Futures
Trend Indicator Analysis
The main trend is up according to the weekly swing chart and moving average analysis. Despite the volatility the past nine weeks, sellers have not been able to take out any significant bottoms, which is helping to keep the uptrend intact. A trade through $110.93 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. A sustained trade under $78.97 will shift momentum to the downside.
The 52-week moving average is $66.45 and the nearest main bottom is at $55.12. Since these levels are not likely to be taken out over the near-term, the market will remain in “buy the dip” mode until the trend changes to down.
The short-term range is $78.97 to $110.93. Its retracement zone at $94.95 to $91.18 is support. The long-term range is $55.12 to $110.93. Its 50% to 61.8% retracement zone is $83.02 to $76.44.
There are upside objectives at $117.63 and $119.48. These are previous nearby futures tops. The next two tops at $123.00 and $130.50 are from the start of the Russia-Ukraine War.
The potential support areas look for structured than the tops, which suggests a floor is forming that could provide support even after the war ends. The previous tops were all formed by speculative spikes that were gone in a flash. This suggests that trying to pick an eventual top will be a difficult task.
Weekly Technical Forecast
The direction of the Weekly June Crude Oil futures contract for the week-ending May 8 is likely to be determined by trader reaction to $94.95 and $91.18.
Bullish Scenario
A sustained move above $94.95 will signal the presence of buyers. This move could create the upside momentum needed to challenge $117.63 to $130.50.
Bearish Scenario
A sustained move under the pivot at $91.18 will indicate the presence of sellers. This could create the downside pressure needed to retest the retracement zone at $83.02 to $76.44.
Oil Prices Forecast: Bullish Bias Holds
The short-term oil prices forecast remains bullish heading into Friday’s session. The market is being supported by real supply concerns, not just emotion. The U.S.-Iran standoff, stalled peace efforts, record U.S. exports, falling inventories, and UAE-related uncertainty all helped drive this week’s rally.
That said, traders should expect sharp swings. If there is progress on reopening the Strait of Hormuz or restarting talks, some risk premium could come out fast. But without a clear diplomatic breakthrough, buyers are likely to stay active.
Right now, the market is still pricing in supply risk. Until that changes, dips are likely to find buyers even after this week’s sharp move.
Technically, I think there is going to more selling pressure if prices spike into previous resistance areas. Oil tops tend to form fast. Buyers are likely to come in on dips rather than chase higher prices to better control the risk.
