Seasonal Demand and Technical Levels
Pullbacks are likely still based on historical norms, but even if the market does pull back, generally speaking, this time of year it’s quite common to see those pullbacks get softer and softer. After all, we are trading the October contract, and in late October in the United States, you start to see heating come into the picture. That being said, supply is at a record level, so that is part of what’s going on here.
Plus, we have the wild card this year of a potential increase in exports to the European Union. That might be a necessity, not just that agreement that they signed last year with the Trump administration, because the flow of natural gas out of the Middle East is still a bit of a question at this point.
Short-term pullbacks will have me looking at the 50-day EMA as potential support. A break to the upside, I’ll be waiting to see if the 200-day EMA causes a bit of a bump along the road at $3.11.
Again, I’m not bullish, but I’m not bearish anymore. I’m looking for ranges to play at this point.
