Hormuz is really constrained too. With only around 10 ships. per day crossing the Strait, compared to a 10-day average of 14 ships per day previously. Before the U.S.-Iran war, the Strait of Hormuz was carrying around one-fifth of global oil supplies. So with the Saudi pipeline outage and Hormuz under stress, there are two critical export routes that are really impaired together.
The International Energy Agency has also drastically reduced the estimates of their 2026 balance to a sharp drop of 5.7 mb/d in global production, mainly due to persistently low supply from the Gulf.
For natural gas, U.S. fundamentals are more balanced. Less production occurrred in the Lower 48, averaging 113.4 bcfd as of September. Output fell to a two week low, but strengthening LNG feedgas demand has offset this somewhat. The disruptions to exporting Qatar and the UAE have likely removed 36 million tonnes of LNG from the market in 2021. As a result, the U.S. LNG is needed to replace missing cargoes from the Middle East.
Fundamental bias: USOIL bullish, UKOil bullish, Natural Gas moderately bullish.
