“To sustain at 110, 115, 20, definitely I don’t see that way. This is a spike, and we have all seen most of these spikes get corrected fast as well.”
Sahdev said crude could remain closer to the upper end of the range if the West Asia conflict continues to cause disruptions. However, he does not expect either very high or very low prices to remain for long.
“My view would remain that 60 definitely not. We won’t go there now as this war is prolonging and causing more disruption.” He expects oil to “stay and oscillate” between $70 and $90 without major spikes.
A key reason behind the sharp price moves is the lack of clarity around actual oil flows. Sahdev pointed to a rise in so-called dark trade, referring to oil shipments that are difficult to track. He said the share had risen to around 65% in August from 30-40% in earlier months, adding to uncertainty in the market.
China could provide another source of support. Sahdev said some Chinese refiners that were under pressure because of restrictions on product exports could receive additional quotas. If that happens, China could return to the market as a buyer, adding to demand.
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At the same time, Sahdev noted that there is still oil flowing through the market, which could limit the upside. With supply concerns, geopolitical headlines and uncertain trade flows all influencing prices, he expects the current spike to eventually ease rather than become a sustained move above $100.
