Brazil has emerged as a key alternative crude supplier amid ongoing challenges in the Middle East, and the surprise reelection this week of leftist President Luiz Inacio “Lula” da Silva is not likely to change that. Brazil and its national oil company (NOC), Petrobras, have been regularly notching monthly production records this year, making the country more self-sufficient and helping global importers absorb the energy supply shock related to the Mideast Gulf war. Lula has called for a redoubling of energy security efforts in Brazil, with a greater focus on domestic gas and fuel production. And despite Lula’s vision for a more diversified Petrobras and a continued emphasis on low-carbon sectors, all signs point to the NOC staying the course on its oil and gas strategy. Brazil produced around 4.5 million barrels per day of crude oil in September, a 15% increase over the same period a year ago, according to Energy Intelligence data. Energy Intelligence sees output continuing to rise through 2027, exiting that year just shy of 4.9 million b/d. Brazilian crude exports in September averaged 2.8 million b/d, up 33% from a year earlier, shipping data from Kpler shows. The leap in exports came just as markets got abruptly cut off from large volumes of oil supply when the Straight of Hormuz was effectively shut on Feb. 28 this year. China has been a big beneficiary — already the top buyer of Brazilian crude going into the crisis, its imports have increased to 1.15 million b/d through Oct. 28 this year, up from 974,000 b/d in full-year 2025, per Kpler. Petrobras also has seen an uptick in shipments to India, Europe and elsewhere in Asia, including to new customers such as Taiwan’s Formosa, Oman’s OQ Trading and Poland’s Orlen.
