Key Resistance Confluence Zone
The recent high, along with the 200-day moving average and lower swing high from March, show the initial upside target zone if price continues to strengthen. Together, they mark an upside range from $3.42 to $3.49. If that top level is exceeded, a bullish trend reversal signal is generated and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the prior downtrend at $3.53 becomes a target, followed by the long-term uptrend line.
Support Levels and Bearish Risk
A decline below this week’s low would put natural gas in a position to test weekly support near last week’s low of $3.06 and the 20-week moving average, also at $3.06. An uptrend line is also aligned with that price zone, adding to its potential significance as a pivot zone. Notably, last week produced a bullish engulfing pattern, reflecting a shift toward buyer control, and reinforcing the broader support structure beneath current price action.
Pattern Transition and Market Equilibrium
Last week, a bullish engulfing week was established, reflecting a move to buyer control. A similar pattern occurred on the prior swing low the week of May 25. It completed a bullish engulfing week. This transition between consolidation-driven indecision, as seen in the weekly doji structure, and prior bullish engulfing signals highlights a market alternating between equilibrium and directional expansion, leaving the current range breakout as the next key inflection point.
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