[Summary of Yesterday’s Market Trends]
In yesterday’s commodity market, energy prices, including crude oil, surged as speculative short positions were unwound following the intensification of Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia, while other sectors generally saw their levels decline.
Amid growing inflation concerns triggered by rising crude oil prices, the trend in US long-term interest rates is being significantly influenced by a rise in term premiums associated with increased corporate bond issuance by hyperscalers (reverse crowding-out).
Currently, concerns over the performance of US AI-related companies and stock price adjustments are acting as downward pressure on risk assets as a whole, and the financial market as a whole has seen a flight to quality in government bonds (yield declines).
Furthermore, at this week’s “LME Week,” copper demand for AI data centers became a focal point of discussion. Regarding the upper limit presented by Trafigura, the view was presented that effective demand is realistically around 3% of total demand for data centers.
Taking into account bottlenecks in power infrastructure such as transformers and power grids, as well as rationing effects due to price surges, the risk of over-incorporating linear expansion of AI demand is being recognized.
[Today’s Key Points]
● High crude oil and energy prices and short covering due to the intensification of Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia
● Selling of risk assets and return to US Treasuries due to performance concerns and stock price adjustments of US AI-related companies
● Verification of copper demand at LME Week (1 million ton level of actual demand for AI data centers and power grid constraints)
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● Energy/Geopolitics: Brent/JCC crude oil target ranges and estimates of JCC spread and transportation cost impacts due to the intensification of the Saudi-Houthi conflict
● Macro/Forex/Interest Rates: Four interest rate and commodity scenarios under US AI stock adjustments and outlooks for USD/JPY and Fed policy decisions
● Non-ferrous/Precious Metals: Copper rationing levels after LME Week and verification of real interest rates and AI bond issuance links
● Grains/Agricultural Products: Analysis of downside targets for Chicago grains (soybeans, corn, wheat down for 6 consecutive days) amid accelerating US autumn harvests
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[Commentary on Agricultural Market Trends]
In the Chicago market last night, soybeans rebounded, while corn and wheat fell. Soybeans closed up 4-7 cents, corn down 3 cents, and wheat down 3-6 cents.
Wheat opened slightly higher and buying remained dominant for most of the day, but selling pressure waiting for a rebound strengthened toward the end, causing it to fall back and ultimately decline for the 6th consecutive trading day. The decline during this period was approximately 60 cents.
The progress of planting work due to good weather in the US Plains is also a bearish factor.
Weekly export sales were 240,000 tons, down 30% from the same period last year, remaining sluggish.
The Rosario Grains Exchange revised Argentina’s 2027 production volume upward by 2.8 million tons from its previous estimate to 23.8 million tons.
The USDA figure is 21.5 million tons, and if the exchange’s revised figure holds, the adjustment would mathematically lead to an increase in export capacity from Argentina.
Corn showed a firm trend in overnight trading, but fell back due to concentrated selling at the start of regular trading, and spent the rest of the session fluctuating within a low range.
It barely managed to maintain the 460-cent level for the December contract, which is seen as short-term support.
Weekly export sales were 1,527,000 tons, up 36% from last week, but still down 45.9% from the same period last year, which cannot be called a normal pace. Mexico was the largest destination with 478,000 tons.
The forecast for the US Midwest over the next week is for continued good weather, so progress in harvesting work can be expected.
Soybeans also showed a firm trend from overnight trading and rose further after regular trading began. It is speculated that commercial buying is also coming in against the backdrop of strong exports.
Weekly export sales were 2,841,000 tons, significantly exceeding market expectations and showing a 171% increase compared to the same period last year.
In daily sales, 202,000 tons were newly reported for China.
Brazil’s Abiove (Brazilian Vegetable Oil Industry Association) expects this year’s crush volume to be 66 million tons, an increase of 2.4 million tons from the previous year (USDA is 65 million tons).
Meanwhile, exports are expected to be 113 million tons, lower than the USDA’s forecast of 118 million tons.
As for tonight’s market, while the trend of selling leading the way is likely to continue, we expect buyback movements to strengthen slightly due to weekend factors.
In other markets, Arabica coffee fell back. The trend of ICE market certified stocks has been viewed as a factor recently, but yesterday, the fact that a batch of cargo awaiting certification piled up into certified stocks also invited profit-taking selling.
Raw sugar continues to see liquidation selling by speculators, falling back to around 20 cents for the near-term contract. India has decided to extend the deadline for duty-free raw sugar imports, which was set for the end of October, to the end of December. No additions to the duty-free quota have been reported at this time.
◆Yesterday’s economic statistics and commodity-related news
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[Miscellaneous thoughts]
[Poor Handsome Guy]
While I was looking at online news
“Ugly rich guy vs. poor handsome guy: Which one do women choose?”
There was an extremely vulgar article posted, but
why is it that we just can’t help but look at these things…
How on earth would they even research something like that?
“Survey results (in-house research)”
I wonder if they base it on something like that.
In that case, they probably ask 4 or 5 people
and explain it as if that were the whole truth.
It feels the same as interviewing someone from overseas
and when that person answers, having the illusion that “everyone in that country thinks that way.”
So.
When I took a quick look,
it seems there is a book written by the founder of a matching app company based on that data,
and this was an excerpt from it.
It’s probably just a book promotion introducing the gist of it.
I’m not sure if it’s credible or not…
And the points were as follows:
・Analysis based on matching app data
・Irreversible factors (like height) can’t be helped
・Being overweight is a no-go, so dieting is essential (a reversible item)
・Annual income is an important factor that surpasses height and educational background
That seems to be it.
I wonder if the summary is that if you are slim and have the ability to make a living, you can win the competition.
However, in the matching results this person investigated,
“Poor handsome guys win overwhelmingly”
Apparently.
What the heck, that has nothing to do with the analysis so far.
As a biological entity, the ability to make a living should be important,
but does that mean looks are quite important in the world of matching?
Well, it’s true that face photos are shown,
and since human vision is directly connected to the brain, that information
must override other information…
Even if you talk about what’s on the inside, if you can’t meet, there’s no inside to speak of…
Just in case, I was curious if this was biologically possible,
so when I looked it up, it seems to be something like this.
・When humans choose a spouse as a biological entity,
there are two axes: “health/genetic quality” and “resources/status”
・Height and educational background have functioned as proxy indicators for “the power to obtain status/resources” since ancient times
・On the other hand, face and body type are classified into the “health/genetic quality” category
Obesity is a metabolic disease, and the face is one of the signals reflecting health conditions, such as symmetry and skin condition, which are more biological elements
…is what they say.
Even so, I still think it’s what’s on the inside. Truly.
And in the midst of all that, I can understand why the Netflix drama “Downtime” was popular.
I watched it the other day, so I might review “Downtime” soon.
Sorry for that trivial talk…
But (but what?) it’s a beautiful day today!
Since it seems I have to lose weight to be popular,
using the excuse that I lost my morning time after the birth of the Trump administration,
I really need to get back to the running I’ve been neglecting.
Looking forward to another great day!
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