Rising crude oil prices and a weak yen. Even if they seem like overseas news, they are connected to our daily lives through gasoline prices and the procurement of goods.
Using the lecture by Bank of Japan Policy Board Member Koeda on October 15, 2026, as a starting point, this manga explains how import costs paid in yen change when high crude oil prices and a weak yen overlap.
We compare ‘only crude oil prices rising,’ ‘only the yen weakening,’ and ‘both overlapping’ using hypothetical figures. In the second half, we also introduce the connections to corporate profits, stock prices, and the investment trusts you are accumulating.
Even with the same news, the impact differs depending on the company or investment destination. Don’t judge by headlines alone; let’s try to connect the flow of money in order and think about it.
※This video does not recommend investment. Please invest at your own risk.
Points
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In his lecture on October 15, 2026, Policy Board Member Koeda mentioned the risk of rising import prices due to geopolitical risks, high crude oil prices, and exchange rate factors. What is introduced here is the view of the Policy Board Member, not an announcement of an interest rate hike decision.
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Import costs viewed in yen are considered by combining the dollar price and the yen amount per dollar. Excluding transportation costs, taxes, etc., a hypothetical example for one barrel of crude oil is as follows.
Comparison Basis Dollar-denominated Crude Oil Price Exchange Rate Yen Equivalent
Starting point of comparison 80 dollars 1 dollar = 140 yen 11,200 yen
Only crude oil price rises 100 dollars 1 dollar = 140 yen 14,000 yen
Only yen weakens 80 dollars 1 dollar = 160 yen 12,800 yen
Both overlap 100 dollars 1 dollar = 160 yen 16,000 yen
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These are all assumptions for explanation and are not predictions of current crude oil prices, exchange rates, or retail prices.
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Crude oil is widely used as fuel and raw material, and it also affects the costs of transporting goods and packaging materials. Retail gasoline prices are also involved with taxes, policies, distribution costs, etc., and do not necessarily move at the same rate as crude oil costs.
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If we keep sales at 100 for a hypothetical company, if costs are 70, profit is 30; if costs are 85, profit is 15. For actual companies, the ability to raise prices, sales volume, contracts, hedges, etc., also have an impact. The 180 yen price tag in the panel is also a hypothetical price for explanation.
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High crude oil prices can sometimes support the earnings of businesses that produce and sell resources. The impact differs depending on the company’s business structure, etc., and the direction of stock prices is not determined solely by high crude oil prices.
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For investment trusts, check the companies included and the contents of the assets. Foreign assets are also affected by exchange rates when converted to yen, and there are differences depending on whether or not there is a currency hedge.
Source
Information verification date: October 17, 2026.
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Bank of Japan, Policy Board Member Junko Koeda, ‘Japan’s Economic and Price Situation and Monetary Policy,’ October 15, 2026 The opening news and the impact on import prices due to high crude oil prices, a weak yen, etc. Especially page 2 of the main text.
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Japan Exchange Group, ‘On Selecting Investment Targets (Stocks) Focusing on Crude Oil Prices’ Educational material to confirm the impact of crude oil on daily life and companies, and differences based on industry and profit structure. Past stock prices and corporate examples posted are not used as current recommendations.
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Agency for Natural Resources and Energy, ‘What happens to gasoline prices if the provisional gasoline tax rate is abolished?’ Reference for how crude oil, exchange rates, tax systems, and policies affect retail prices. This manga does not deal with the current specific amounts of the system.
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Financial Services Agency, NISA-related explanatory material, ‘Differences between domestic and overseas types’ Reference for exchange rate fluctuation risk of investment trusts that incorporate foreign currency-denominated assets.
Crude oil costs, corporate profits, and price tag figures are based on independently set calculation examples. Explanations regarding stock prices and investment trusts are general descriptions of how they work.
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