Devastating blow! 30 attacks deal critical hits to Russian energy, crude oil processing volume falls to a 20-year low

Refining Capacity Plunges Sharply; Daily Throughput Falls to Lowest Level Since 2002

Impacted by Ukraine’s continued strikes on Russian energy infrastructure, Russia’s crude oil processing scale shrank significantly in July, with processing volumes hitting their lowest level in over two decades.

Statistics from EA Analytics show that daily crude oil processing at Russian refineries in July was only 3.6 million barrels, the lowest figure since May 2002, a sharp drop of about one-third compared to normal levels in previous years. Comparing industry data from 2020 to 2025, the regular daily processing volume of Russian refineries was stable at 5.3 million to 5.6 million barrels, making this month’s capacity decline remarkably significant.

Domestic Fuel Supply Under Pressure; Russia Extends Ban on Refined Product Exports

Frequent shutdowns of refining units have directly led to a sharp decline in domestic gasoline and diesel production. To avoid the risk of local fuel shortages and ensure a balance between domestic supply and demand, Russia recently extended the export ban on most diesel and gasoline, prioritizing the domestic market supply by restricting foreign sales.

Meanwhile, constrained refining capacity has forced a restructuring of trade patterns, with producers within Russia reducing refining output and turning to direct crude oil exports instead. This shift has significantly increased the transport pressure on Russian ports and the oil tanker fleet, while relevant shipping and port facilities had already suffered from the impact of Ukrainian attacks, leaving transport capacity in a tense state.

July Sees Record High Attack Frequency; Refining, Shipping, and Pipeline Facilities Damaged Successively

July became the month in recent years where Russian oil infrastructure faced the most frequent strikes. According to statistics based on public information from both Russia and Ukraine, Russian oil-related infrastructure suffered a cumulative 30 attacks during the month.

The attacks covered core links across the entire industry chain, with at least 18 Russian refineries attacked this month, including the Omsk refinery, Russia’s largest. Additionally, 5 large oil tankers, 5 port infrastructure facilities, and 2 key oil pipelines were all targeted. If combined with the events involving 8 tankers from the Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal being attacked, the intensity of the impact on Russian energy assets in July hit a new periodic high.

Affected by facility damage, crude oil export transport capacity contracted noticeably. Data shows that in the week ending July 26, only 4 tankers completed crude loading operations at Russia’s Novorossiysk port, a continuous decrease from 7 and 8 in the previous two weeks, indicating a significant decline in port export efficiency.

Geopolitical Risks Continue to Disrupt; Russia’s Energy Export Recovery Capability Limited

Industry analysis points out that it is difficult for Russia’s energy exports to recover quickly in the short term. Jorge Leon, Head of Geopolitics Analysis at Rystad Energy, stated that while Russia can rely on Baltic ports to divert some crude oil export pressure, existing pipeline storage and transport facilities and tanker capacity are limited and cannot fully compensate for the export gap in the Black Sea route.

Sergei Vakulenko, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center in Berlin, analyzed that the subsequent trajectory of Russia’s refining production and crude oil exports depends heavily on the scale of Ukraine’s drone equipment and the priority of its strike targets. While Russia’s strengthening of air defense deployments can reduce the success rate of attacks, it cannot achieve comprehensive protection.

In terms of attack rhythm, Ukraine’s strike strategy in July showed clear phasing: concentrated surprise attacks on various refineries in the middle of the month, shifting combat targets to oil tankers at sea in the latter half; attacks escalated again at the end of the month, with three large refineries hit in the last three days, followed by four more refineries struck over the weekend, continuing to precisely suppress Russia’s energy industry chain. The landscape of Russian energy production and exports may face long-term pressure.