Mukesh Sahdev, Founder and CEO of X-Analysts, expects crude oil prices to remain around the $100 per barrel mark ahead of the US elections, saying elevated freight costs and disruptions to global oil flows are preventing prices from easing despite changing geopolitical developments.
Looking beyond 2026, Sahdev said oil prices could average in the $80 per barrel range if the expected supply surplus materialises. However, he believes refining constraints and transportation bottlenecks could keep crude prices higher than many market forecasts suggest.
“The biggest story is the freight,” Sahdev said, adding that shipping disruptions have become a more important driver of oil prices than political headlines.
Freight costs are supporting oil prices
Sahdev said the market initially reacted to lower fears of near-term geopolitical escalation, but sanctions on shipping entities have continued to disrupt crude transportation.
According to him, freight rates are currently four to five times higher than normal, making it harder to move crude between producing and consuming regions.
“If you sanction more vessels, the freight is already at four to five times high,” he said.
He added that rising shipping costs are making global oil trade less efficient, slowing the balancing of supply and demand and keeping the geopolitical risk premium elevated.
Oil likely to stay around $100 per barrel before US elections
Sahdev does not expect a sharp fall in crude prices in the near term.
“I don’t see any strong reason for oil prices to come down,” he said, citing tightening market conditions, higher freight costs and the rapid expansion of ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf region.
He noted that so-called dark trade involving ship-to-ship transfers has increased to around 8–9 million barrels per day, keeping vessels occupied for longer periods and delaying crude deliveries.
He also pointed to the Atlantic hurricane season, which has temporarily affected crude production and raised concerns over refinery operations.
2027 could see lower average prices, but risks remain
While many brokerages expect oil prices to decline in 2027 because of an anticipated supply surplus, Sahdev said the outlook depends on more than production levels.
He expects refining capacity constraints and damage to Russian refineries to continue supporting petroleum product prices, which could in turn keep crude oil prices elevated.
Sahdev said an average price in the $80 per barrel range appears more realistic than a rapid fall into the $60–70 per barrel range.
He also noted that countries and companies are unlikely to rebuild strategic oil inventories unless the futures market shifts into contango, creating an economic incentive to store crude.
Until then, he expects inventory rebuilding to remain limited, providing additional support to the oil market.
For the full interview, watch the accompanying video
X-Analysts’ Mukesh Sahdev says freight disruptions may keep crude oil prices high
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