Will prices keep rising?
Despite recent pullbacks, ICICI Bank Global Markets expects gold to remain supported over the medium term, although prices may move sideways in the near term because of a stronger US dollar and continued geopolitical tensions in West Asia.
“Gold prices can potentially go up as lower oil prices ensure need for fewer rate hikes by central banks along with demand for physical asset sustaining,” the report said.
The bank expects gold to trade between $4,400 and $4,600 an ounce in the near term, while warning that prices could briefly fall toward $4,200 if regional tensions intensify further.
Over the longer term, analysts remain bullish, forecasting gold could rise toward $4,800-$5,000 an ounce by December 2026 and potentially $5,400-$5,600 by the end of 2027.
“The global USD could come under pressure in the medium-term that will increase appetite for non-USD assets,” the report added, citing continued central bank buying and safe-haven demand for bullion. Higher prices are already beginning to affect gold buying patterns in India
Is Indian demand slowing?
The report said India recorded an 81 per cent rise in gold import values in April, but much of the increase reflected higher prices rather than stronger physical demand. Import volumes slowed to around 30 tonnes during March and April, compared with a monthly average of 50 tonnes in 2025.
For UAE-based buyers, analysts expect Dubai to maintain its relative pricing advantage because local gold rates remain more closely aligned with international spot prices, while Indian domestic prices continue absorbing the impact of higher import duties and rupee depreciation.
That divergence is expected to keep the UAE attractive for jewellery and bullion purchases, particularly among travellers seeking lower premiums, wider product variety and more transparent pricing structures.
Globally, analysts still expect gold to remain in a structurally bullish cycle supported by geopolitical uncertainty, central bank accumulation and long-term safe-haven demand, even as short-term volatility linked to oil prices and US monetary policy continues.
Justin is a personal finance author and seasoned business journalist with over a decade of experience. He makes it his mission to break down complex financial topics and make them clear, relatable, and relevant—helping everyday readers navigate today’s economy with confidence.
Before returning to his Middle Eastern roots, where he was born and raised, Justin worked as a Business Correspondent at Reuters, reporting on equities and economic trends across both the Middle East and Asia-Pacific regions.
