Keystone
In the final quarter of 2025, the Swiss economy recovered somewhat from the consequences of the US tariffs. This is reflected in gross domestic product (GDP), which rose by 0.2% in real terms in the fourth quarter on an adjusted basis compared to the previous quarter.
The services sector recorded modest growth, while the industrial sector stagnated, according to the initial estimate published by the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (Seco) on Monday. The figure is in line with expert estimates, which ranged from +0.1 percent to +0.4 percent according to the AWP survey.
In the third quarter, the local economy slipped significantly into negative territory due to Donald Trump’s tariff hammers. GDP fell by 0.5 percent, which was significantly worse than expected at the time. The economy has now at least recovered slightly.
According to the first Seco flash estimate, real GDP growth for 2025 as a whole will be 1.4% after 1.2% in the previous year. This is well below Switzerland’s average economic growth, which according to Seco has been 1.8% since 1981.
Uncertain environment
The challenging international environment slowed down the export-oriented industry last year, while the service sector grew at an above-average rate by historical standards, according to Seco.
The current data is based on a quick estimate by Seco after 45 days. Basic data that is still incomplete is supplemented with forecast values. The complete and updated data available later could change the result slightly. The detailed first estimate will then be published on February 27.
