Ruth Gregory, deputy chief UK economist at Capital Economics, said the latest growth figures would “be the high point for the year” given the effects of the war in Iran.
“We would be very surprised if growth doesn’t weaken from May as the temporary boost from stockpiling unwinds and the squeeze on households’ real incomes from higher energy prices intensifies.
“In our adverse scenario, the economy suffers a mild recession. So the economy will probably give whoever is prime minister a rough ride.”
GDP figures can be revised up or down as the ONS gathers more information on the economy.
In the latest release, the growth for the final three months of 2025 was revised up to 0.2% from the previous estimate of 0.1%.
On the monthly basis, while March’s growth was higher than expected, the estimate for February was revised down from 0.5% to 0.4%, and January’s was reduced from 0.1% to zero.
