Europe’s race to refill natural-gas stockpiles has become increasingly challenging as the Iran war drives up prices, making it less profitable for traders to buy and store the fuel ahead of winter.
European gas prices have jumped more than 70% since the war in the Middle East.
The conflict has severely disrupted flows through the Strait of Hormuz, which used to carry around 20% of global liquefied natural gas flows, while Iranian attacks have wiped out 17% of Qatar’s LNG export capacity. European gas prices have jumped more than 70% since the war started.
Gas storage sites across the European Union are now about 52% full, while injection rates are running below last year’s pace and the 10-year summer average, raising concerns that some countries could struggle to rebuild reserves.
“Europe is on track to enter winter with its lowest gas storage buffer since the 2022 energy crisis,” said Natasha Fielding, head of gas and LNG pricing at Argus.
Storage levels are closely watched because reserves help manage winter heating demand and protect against supply disruptions. The EU eased storage rules, allowing countries to target at least 80% of capacity by early November under difficult market conditions, instead of the standard 90% requirement.
Europe is past the midpoint of the refill season—which runs from April 1 to Nov. 1—leaving roughly three and a half months to rebuild inventories.
Most analysts expect storage levels to reach just above 70% in the fall, which would leave the region with a smaller buffer and greater exposure to spot LNG prices if demand follows normal seasonal patterns. The challenge comes as higher gas prices have reversed the seasonal discount that normally encourages traders to buy and store gas in the summer.
Concerns about near-term supplies have lifted summer prices, while expectations of a recovery in Qatari exports have weighed on winter prices, said Florence Schmit, senior energy strategist at Rabobank.
The forward curve for TTF-the Netherlands-based benchmark that sets the price for much of Europe’s natural gas-has moved into backwardation, meaning shorter-dated contracts are more expensive than longer-dated ones. The August 2026 TTF contract was trading at a premium of around 1.75 euros a megawatt hour to winter 2026 on Monday.
The EU is the world’s largest importer of LNG. Last year, it imported a record 146 billion cubic meters due to higher gas demand needs and a lower starting level of underground gas storage following the 2024-25 winter, according to the EU Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators.
Europe’s expanding LNG import capacity could help offset lower storage levels, but the region will need to compete aggressively for available cargoes, particularly with Asia. The challenge could intensify as the EU phases out Russian LNG and pipeline gas contracts, leaving buyers with fewer options.
The biggest uncertainty for global LNG markets is how quickly Qatari exports can recover through the Strait of Hormuz. Even before the latest escalation of tensions between the U.S. and Iran, the market expected the country would need several weeks to resume production and shipments, excluding any damaged capacity.
Now, the recovery could take even longer, putting further pressure on global LNG balances and Europe’s storage outlook. “The question is no longer whether the LNG market is tight, which it clearly is,” Schmit said. “The question is how tight it becomes.”
Much depends on how much LNG Qatar can continue to export despite the conflict. Possible pathways include increased transit through the Omani channel under U.S. naval protection, or a negotiated arrangement involving Iranian transit agreements or tolling arrangements that allow LNG shipments to continue with fewer disruptions, according to Rabobank.
For Europe, the outcome will determine whether lower storage levels remain manageable—or become a major source of winter price volatility.
