UAE fuel prices to fall?
The UAE reviews fuel prices every month using the previous month’s average international oil prices rather than daily market movements.
That means one or two days of higher crude prices are unlikely, by themselves, to result in higher pump prices. What matters is whether Brent remains elevated over the coming weeks.
If oil retreats back towards the mid-$70 range, the impact on the next fuel price review would likely be limited.
If Brent holds above $85 for an extended period, however, the higher monthly average could reduce the scope for further fuel price cuts or even place upward pressure on future revisions.
Outlook still points lower
The latest jump in oil prices has clouded the near-term outlook, but most major forecasters have not yet changed their expectations for lower crude prices over the second half of 2026.
Those forecasts were based on improving supply after the US-Iran ceasefire framework, the gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and additional OPEC+ production. The recent attacks on UAE tankers have reintroduced a geopolitical risk premium, but analysts say it is too early to conclude that the broader downtrend has reversed.
Before the latest escalation, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) expected Brent crude to fall below $80 a barrel during the third quarter and ease towards $70 by year-end as Hormuz exports recovered and global demand slowed.
Goldman Sachs lowered its fourth-quarter Brent forecast to $80 from $90, while Morgan Stanley projected $90 in the third quarter and $80 in the fourth. Citi remains among the most bearish, forecasting $75 in the third quarter and $70 in the fourth quarter.
Justin is a personal finance author and seasoned business journalist with over a decade of experience. He makes it his mission to break down complex financial topics and make them clear, relatable, and relevant—helping everyday readers navigate today’s economy with confidence.
Before returning to his Middle Eastern roots, where he was born and raised, Justin worked as a Business Correspondent at Reuters, reporting on equities and economic trends across both the Middle East and Asia-Pacific regions.
