According to reports, Iranian missile attacks on Ras Laffan, the site of Qatar’s core liquefied natural gas (LNG) processing operations, caused “extensive damage” to its energy hub. The United Arab Emirates also shut some energy operations, responding to incidents at the Habshan gas facilities and the Bab oil field caused by falling debris from intercepted missiles.
Last checked, Brent futures were up $3.69, or 3.44 per cent, at $111.07 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude rose $2.29, or 2.38 per cent, to $98.61.
Kotak Institutional Equities believes elevated oil prices will lead to weak earnings in OMCs.
“We are reducing our FY2027E Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (Ebitda) by 45-47 per cent for BPCL and HPCL and 28 per cent for IOCL. We also cut FY2028E Ebitda by 3-8 per cent. Further firming up in oil prices could push OMCs into losses in FY2027E,” the brokerage noted.
Furthermore, Kotak reckons that with OMCs allowed to build a cushion in recent years, the compensation from the government can be delayed. With the low‐oil‐price cycle behind us, the strong earnings phase for OMCs is likely over as well. The current crisis underscores the need for higher strategic crude and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) reserves, with OMCs likely to play a leading role.
The brokerage maintained ‘Sell’ on IOCL, BPCL, and HPCL, with revised targets of ₹100 (₹125 earlier), ₹240 (₹300 earlier), and ₹235 (₹335 earlier), respectively.
Emkay Global Financial, in its report dated March 17, 2026, highlighted that over the next 3 to 4 months, pain of rising crude oil prices will be shared equally between pump prices, OMC profits, and tax cuts. The brokerage’s pro forma numbers indicate that for every month that crude stays at $100 per bbl:
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The current account deficit (CAD) could rise by 9-10 basis points (bps) of gross domestic product (GDP). -
Inflation will spike by 50bps, just from the primary impact -
OMC PAT would be hurt by 9 per cent.
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