New power projects, proposed data centres raising hope for Canada’s natural gas industry

Chatter about Canada’s budding liquefied natural gas ambitions and data-centre opportunities have punctuated third-quarter earnings calls in the Canadian oilpatch, providing a welcome bright spot for producers struggling with weak natural gas prices.

The sector welcomed news last week that LNG Canada’s second massive processing unit, known as Train 2, had begun production of liquefied natural gas. Canada’s first major LNG export facility has been shipping cargoes since June, but technical challenges had slowed its ramp-up, exacerbating an oversupply of gas in Western Canada in the third quarter.

Canadian producers and analysts expect the price gap between Canadian and U.S. natural gas — known as the basis differential — to narrow as new LNG export demand comes online.

“LNG Canada will go from not doing anything in the first half of this year to (drawing) up to two billion cubic feet a day, we think as early as the first quarter of 2026,” Jamie Heard, vice-president of capital markets at Tourmaline Oil Corp., said last week.

“That’s a very meaningful demand change, and the basin will need to react to that with less exports to the United States. And the mechanism to achieve those less exports will be a tighter basis.”

Alongside the near-term boost from rising demand from LNG Canada, Tourmaline and other market watchers are anticipating a wave of new power-generation and data-centre developments that could help lift natural gas prices in Western Canada over the next few years.

TC Energy Corp. said it has increased its North American natural gas demand forecast by five billion cubic feet per day, bringing total expected growth in demand nearly 13 per cent higher thanks to new LNG export terminals and surging electricity needs.

The pipeline giant said the amount of gas transported on its system in Alberta bound for electricity-generating facilities is up 80 per cent over the past five years.

TC’s smaller midstream peer, Pembina Pipeline Corp., faced a flurry of analyst questions Friday about its first major gas-fired power project — which an unconfirmed report by The Logic last month said is expected to supply power to a planned Meta Platforms Inc. data centre.

The Greenlight Electricity Centre, being developed with private partner Kineticor, could generate up to 1,800 megawatts of power at full build-out and has already secured a coveted 907-megawatt grid connection from the Alberta Electric System Operator.

Pembina said it expects to make a final investment decision in the first half of 2026, and chief financial officer Cameron Goldade said the company is already looking at future opportunities.

“When we’ve looked at other developments… once you get the core assets in place, they do tend to cluster,” Goldade said. “And obviously, as we think about the advantages — utilities, access to water, all of the embedded advantages — we do see that being an advantage in our offering for the future. So we think there’s opportunity beyond this.”

Producers in the basin say they’re cheering on Greenlight and projects like it since it provides a new outlet for Western Canada’s landlocked natural gas.

Still, for many companies, the bigger prize lies offshore, and expanding access to LNG export markets remained a strategic focus for Canadian energy companies in the third quarter.

Last week, Tourmaline announced a 10-year supply deal with European gas-trader Centrica Energy, the trading arm of British Gas owner Centrica plc. — the latest long-term export contract the producer has inked to diversify sales outside of Western Canada’s volatile market.

Pembina also signed a 20-year deal granting Malaysian energy giant PETRONAS one million tonnes a year of capacity at its Cedar LNG project, ensuring steady revenue once the plant begins operations in 2028.

Third-quarter earnings also coincided last week with the release of Prime Minister Mark Carney‘s first federal budget, which included tax incentives for LNG equipment — but only for low-carbon facilities.

Canada joined Germany, Japan and the U.K. in signing a declaration Friday aimed at creating a marketplace for natural gas certified to have lower methane emissions, ahead of the COP30 climate conference this week.

The accord, supported by the European Commission and the International Energy Agency (IEA), is a bid to support the trade of greener natural gas, with the eventual aim of linking exporters like Canada with fuel importers willing to pay a premium for supplies associated with fewer emissions.

Email: mpotkins@postmedia.com