Despite US President Donald Trump’s assertion that India has promised to halt Russian crude oil imports, government sources said that New Delhi will continue to procure the geopolitically-sensitive commodity from “non-sanctioned entities” including from Moscow.
Moreover, analysts, trade sources and refiners told businesslinethat a near complete halt of supplies is “extremely unlikely” at least in the next 2-3 months, adding that there is “no official order” from the government “so far” to stop buying crude oil from non-sanctioned Russian entities.
Logistics also supports their claim: typically, cargoes from Russia are booked about 10 weeks in advance. Currently, vessels transporting the commodity are at various stages of loading and transit, which means that cargoes booked 10 weeks prior will continue to off-load crude oil at Indian ports, mostly on the west coast, till March end-April 2026.
Sumit Ritolia, Kpler’s Lead Research Analyst for Refining & Modeling, said the trade deal announced on February 2 (2026) is unlikely to result in a near-term reduction in India’s Russian crude imports.
“Russian volumes remain largely locked in for the next 8–10 weeks and continue to be economically critical for India’s complex refining system, supported by deep discounts on Urals relative to ICE Brent. Imports are expected to stay broadly stable in around 1.1–1.3 million barrels per day (mb/d) range through Q1 and early Q2 (2026), with any recent moderation offset by higher Middle East inflows rather than a structural shift away from Russian barrels,” he added.
Refiners are technically capable of operating without Urals, but a rapid disengagement would be commercially challenging and politically sensitive, making any policy-driven recalibration gradual rather than immediate, Ritolia stressed.
Economic impact
However, trade sources and refining sector executives cautioned that if India did completely halt Russian cargoes, the implications for the world’s fastest growing emerging economy could be “disruptive”.
Moody’s Ratings said “Even though India has reduced its purchase of crude oil from Russia in recent months, it is unlikely to cease all purchases immediately which could be disruptive to India’s economic growth. A complete shift toward non-Russian oil could also tighten supply elsewhere, raise prices and pass through to higher inflation given that India is one of the world’s largest oil importers.”
However, Prashant Vasisht, Senior VP and Co-Group Head of Corporate Ratings at ICRA, said “Discounts on Russian crude oil were marginal prior to US announcing sanctions on some Russian crude suppliers in October 2025, and ICRA estimates that replacement of Russian crude with market priced crude would lead to an increase in import bill of the country by less than 2 per cent.”
Source diversification
Ritolia said the trade deal reinforces India’s ongoing diversification strategy at the margin. US crude is emerging as the primary beneficiary, potentially accounting for up to around 10 per cent of India’s crude intake, largely displacing lighter West African grades rather than Russian supply.
Last month, Oil Minister Hardeep Singh Puri quoting Economic Survey data said on X “Energy security also means smarter sourcing. In FY26 (April-November), the share of crude imports from the US rose to 8.1 (from 4.6 per cent in FY25) and UAE to 11.1 per cent (from 9.4 per cent). India is diversifying risk…”
More diversification data from the Survey: April-November 2025 crude import shares rose for Egypt to 1.4 per cent (from 0.3 per cent), Nigeria to 3.3 per cent (from 2.2 per cent) and Libya to 0.5 per cent (from 0.1 per cent). This is resilience by design, not hope, he emphasised.
“Venezuelan crude may reappear opportunistically, but volumes are expected to remain episodic and constrained by weaker economics, sanctions compliance, insurance, and blending requirements, positioning it more as a pricing lever than a structural alternative,” Ritolia pointed out.
Overall, these adjustments are expected to be compositional rather than volumetric, leaving India’s refined product yield structure broadly unchanged as refiners continue to optimise like-for-like substitutions within existing configurations, he explained.
Published on February 3, 2026
