The 200-day moving average is the level to watch. Bulls are trying to hold it, signaling they still believe colder weather is around the corner and demand will follow. Bears, meanwhile, are pressing it hard — betting that a mild start to December keeps a lid on heating demand. If sellers push through with volume, we could see a quick trip to $4.220 or even $4.142 — both 50% retracement levels that would represent deeper profit-taking zones.
The more critical support sits at the 50-day moving average down at $4.014. If that level holds, the market stays in “buy-the-dip” mode. A break below it, though, would likely trigger a deeper unwinding of long positions. Bottom line: the trend is still higher, but we’re at an inflection point.
Forecasts Turn Warmer as Bulls Pause
Weather is keeping the market in limbo. According to NatGasWeather, a brief cold shot will hit the Northeast early this week, but most of the U.S. is warming up into the weekend.
Temperatures will run above normal across both the northern and southern halves of the country, leading to only moderate demand in the near term and low demand thereafter. Over the weekend, new weather data hinted that a warm ridge over the eastern U.S. could linger longer than expected — one of the key risks flagged last week.
That shift in outlook is what’s giving sellers confidence to press the 200-day MA, while bulls are holding off to see if the midday models offer anything colder for early December. The market still expects cold to return, but the timing keeps slipping.
Storage Build Signals Loose Balance
Last Thursday’s EIA report showed a 45 Bcf injection for the week ending November 7, in line with expectations but still reflecting a relatively loose balance. Total storage now stands at 3,960 Bcf — just 6 Bcf below last year but 172 Bcf above the five-year average. That surplus gives bears some cushion, especially if December doesn’t start cold enough to spur strong withdrawals.
