The trigger sits 12,000 kilometres away. Since the US-Israel strikes on Iran in late February, the Strait of Hormuz – which carries roughly 20% of global oil volumes – has been functionally closed. Brent has traded as high as US$126 a barrel and was still around US$102 yesterday. The price has eased on peace hopes, but with around 20,000 seafarers stranded in the Persian Gulf and shipping flows expected to take weeks to normalise even in a best case scenario, the inflationary aftershocks are locked in.
